DOW Index Chance of Future Index Price Finishing Under 31928.62

DJI
 Index
  

 33,853  3.07  0.0091%   

DOW's future price is the expected price of DOW instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of DOW performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. DOW's implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on DOW. Implied volatility approximates the future value of DOW based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in DOW over a specific time period. For example, 2022-12-02 CALL at $349.0 is a CALL option contract on DOW's common stock with a strick price of 349.0 expiring on 2022-12-02. The contract was last traded on 0000-00-00 at 00:00:00 for $0.35 and, as of today, has 2 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $0.06, and an ask price of $0.13. The implied volatility as of the 29th of November is 23.372. View All DOW options

Closest to current price DOW long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

Check out DOW Backtesting, Portfolio Optimization, DOW Correlation, DOW Hype Analysis, DOW Volatility, DOW History as well as DOW Performance. Please specify DOW time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like DOW odds to be computed.

DOW Target Price Odds to finish below 31928.62

The tendency of DOW Index price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to drop to  31,929  or more in 90 days
 33,853 90 days 31,929 
about 59.92
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of DOW to drop to  31,929  or more in 90 days from now is about 59.92 (This DOW probability density function shows the probability of DOW Index to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of DOW price to stay between  31,929  and its current price of 33852.53 at the end of the 90-day period is about 32.86 .
   DOW Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for DOW

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as DOW. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of DOW's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of DOW in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
33,85133,85333,854
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
32,69332,69437,238
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
34,46634,46834,469
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
31,02832,74534,463
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as DOW. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against DOW's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, DOW's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in DOW.

DOW Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. DOW is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the DOW's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold DOW, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of DOW within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.

DOW Technical Analysis

DOW's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. DOW Index technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of DOW. In general, you should focus on analyzing DOW Index price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

DOW Predictive Forecast Models

DOW time-series forecasting models is one of many DOW's index analysis techniquest aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models ae widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties e.g. the mean and standard deviation are not constant over time but instead, these metrics vary over time. These non-stationary DOW's historical data is usually called time-series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the index market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards DOW in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, DOW's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from DOW options trading.
Check out DOW Backtesting, Portfolio Optimization, DOW Correlation, DOW Hype Analysis, DOW Volatility, DOW History as well as DOW Performance. You can also try Insider Screener module to find insiders across different sectors to evaluate their impact on performance.

Other Tools for DOW Index

When running DOW price analysis, check to measure DOW's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy DOW is operating at the current time. Most of DOW's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of DOW's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move DOW's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of DOW to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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