Zendesk Stock Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing

ZEN
 Stock
  

USD 77.48  0.00  0.00%   

Zendesk Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Zendesk historical stock prices and determine the direction of Zendesk's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Zendesk historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Zendesk naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm we recommend to always cross-verify it against solid analysis of Zendesk systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Zendesk fundamentals over time.
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Zendesk PPandE Turnover is quite stable at the moment as compared to the past year. The company's current value of PPandE Turnover is estimated at 15.04. Receivables Turnover is expected to rise to 8.43 this year, although the value of Accounts Payable Turnover will most likely fall to 39.70. . Issuance Purchase of Equity Shares is expected to rise to about 48 M this year, although the value of Weighted Average Shares will most likely fall to about 97.6 M.

Open Interest Agains t 2022-12-02 Zendesk Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Zendesk's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest Zendesk's options reflect these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short trading strategies Zendesk stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note, to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Zendesk's open interest, investors have to compare it to Zendesk's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Zendesk is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Zendesk. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Zendesk cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Zendesk's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Zendesk's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Triple exponential smoothing for Zendesk - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When Zendesk prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in Zendesk price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of Zendesk.

Zendesk Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 2nd of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Zendesk on the next trading day is expected to be 77.60 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.24, mean absolute percentage error of 0.11, and the sum of the absolute errors of 14.09.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Zendesk Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Zendesk's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Zendesk Stock Forecast Pattern

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Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Zendesk stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Zendesk stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.0355
MADMean absolute deviation0.2387
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0031
SAESum of the absolute errors14.0852
As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past Zendesk observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older Zendesk observations.

Predictive Modules for Zendesk

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Zendesk. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Zendesk's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Zendesk in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
77.0877.4877.88
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
69.7395.1595.55
Details
13 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
110.00148.62193.00
Details
Earnings
Estimates (6)
LowProjected EPSHigh
-0.85-0.82-0.78
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Zendesk. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Zendesk's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Zendesk's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Zendesk.

Zendesk Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Zendesk stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Zendesk could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Zendesk by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
Coca-ColaAMN Healthcare ServicesTwist Bioscience CorpFreedom Holding CorpGlobal X NASDAQFRANKLIN MUTUAL EUROPEANBHP Group LimitedNatural Health TrendIShares MSCI USAAramark HoldingsVanguard Long-TermSeagate Technology PLCVistra Energy CorpExxon Mobil CorpSignature Bank
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Zendesk Risk Indicators

The analysis of Zendesk's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Zendesk's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Zendesk stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Be your own money manager

Our tools can tell you how much better you can do entering a position in Zendesk without increasing your portfolio risk or giving up the expected return. As an individual investor, you need to find a reliable way to track all your investment portfolios. However, your requirements will often be based on how much of the process you decide to do yourself. In addition to allowing all investors analytical transparency into all their portfolios, our tools can evaluate risk-adjusted returns of your individual positions relative to your overall portfolio.

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Check out Your Current Watchlist. Note that the Zendesk information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Zendesk's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Idea Analyzer module to analyze all characteristics, volatility and risk-adjusted return of Macroaxis ideas.

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Is Zendesk's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Zendesk. If investors know Zendesk will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Zendesk listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Market Capitalization
9.6 B
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
0.2
Return On Assets
(0.0493) 
Return On Equity
(0.69) 
The market value of Zendesk is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Zendesk that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Zendesk's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Zendesk's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Zendesk's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Zendesk's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Zendesk's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Zendesk value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Zendesk's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.