Exxon Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

XOM
 Stock
  

USD 94.00  0.81  0.87%   

Exxon Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Exxon historical stock prices and determine the direction of Exxon Mobil Corp's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Exxon historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Exxon naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm we recommend to always cross-verify it against solid analysis of Exxon Mobil Corp systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Exxon fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Exxon to cross-verify your projections.
  
PPandE Turnover is expected to hike to 1.52 this year. Receivables Turnover is expected to hike to 12.37 this year. Exxon Weighted Average Shares is relatively stable at the moment as compared to the past year. The company's current value of Weighted Average Shares is estimated at 4.8 Billion. Weighted Average Shares Diluted is expected to hike to about 4.8 B this year, although the value of Issuance Purchase of Equity Shares will most likely fall to (942.9 M).

Open Interest Agains t 2022-08-19 Exxon Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Exxon's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest Exxon's options reflect these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short trading strategies Exxon stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note, to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Exxon's open interest, investors have to compare it to Exxon's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Exxon is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Exxon. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Exxon cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Exxon's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Exxon's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for Exxon is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Exxon Mobil Corp value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Exxon Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 16th of August 2022

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Exxon Mobil Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 90.61 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.05, mean absolute percentage error of 6.82, and the sum of the absolute errors of 125.33.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Exxon Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Exxon's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Exxon Stock Forecast Pattern

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Exxon Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Exxon's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Exxon's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 88.16 and 93.05, respectively. We have considered Exxon's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value 94.00
90.61
Expected Value
93.05
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Exxon stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Exxon stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria120.0297
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation2.0546
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0225
SAESum of the absolute errors125.3333
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Exxon Mobil Corp. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Exxon. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Exxon

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Exxon Mobil Corp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Exxon's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Exxon in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
91.3393.7696.19
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
79.4481.87103.40
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
82.0989.2196.33
Details
15 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
48.0070.32100.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Exxon. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Exxon's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Exxon's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Exxon Mobil Corp.

Other Forecasting Options for Exxon

For every potential investor in Exxon, whether a beginner or expert, Exxon's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Exxon Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Exxon. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Exxon's price trends.

Exxon Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Exxon stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Exxon could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Exxon by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
American ExpressChevron CorpAlcoa CorpWalt DisneyInternational BusinessGeneral ElectricVerizon CommunicationsCaterpillarBank Of AmericaAmn Healthcare ServicesTwist Bioscience CorpFreedom Holding CorpKEURIG DR PEPPERGX Nasdaq-100 CoveredFranklin Mutual European
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Exxon Mobil Corp Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Exxon's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Exxon's current price.

Exxon Risk Indicators

The analysis of Exxon's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Exxon's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Exxon stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Be your own money manager

Our tools can tell you how much better you can do entering a position in Exxon without increasing your portfolio risk or giving up expected return. As an individual investor, you need to find a reliable way to track all your investment portfolios. However, your requirements will often be based on how much of the process you decide to do yourself. In addition to allowing all investors analytical transparency into all their portfolios, our tools can evaluate.risk-adjusted returns of your individual positions relative to your overall portfolio.

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Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Exxon to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Exxon Mobil Corp information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Exxon's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Transaction History module to view history of all your transactions and understand their impact on performance.

Complementary Tools for Exxon Stock analysis

When running Exxon Mobil Corp price analysis, check to measure Exxon's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Exxon is operating at the current time. Most of Exxon's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Exxon's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Exxon's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Exxon to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Exxon's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Exxon. If investors know Exxon will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Exxon listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Exxon Mobil Corp is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Exxon that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Exxon's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Exxon's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Exxon's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Exxon's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Exxon's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Exxon value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Exxon's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.