Wendys Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

WEN
 Stock
  

USD 22.25  0.17  0.76%   

Wendys Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Wendys historical stock prices and determine the direction of Wendys Company's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Wendys historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Wendys naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm we recommend to always cross-verify it against solid analysis of Wendys Company systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Wendys fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Wendys to cross-verify your projections.
  
Wendys Inventory Turnover is quite stable at the moment as compared to the past year. The company's current value of Inventory Turnover is estimated at 178.75. Accounts Payable Turnover is expected to rise to 53.34 this year, although the value of PPandE Turnover will most likely fall to 1.62. . Weighted Average Shares is expected to rise to about 245 M this year. Weighted Average Shares Diluted is expected to rise to about 250.9 M this year.

Open Interest Agains t 2022-12-16 Wendys Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Wendys' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest Wendys' options reflect these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short trading strategies Wendys stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note, to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Wendys' open interest, investors have to compare it to Wendys' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Wendys is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Wendys. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Wendys cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Wendys' time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Wendys' price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for Wendys is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Wendys Company value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Wendys Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 29th of November

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Wendys Company on the next trading day is expected to be 23.49 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.24, mean absolute percentage error of 0.09, and the sum of the absolute errors of 14.93.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Wendys Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Wendys' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Wendys Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest WendysWendys Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Wendys Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Wendys' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Wendys' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 21.92 and 25.07, respectively. We have considered Wendys' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value 22.25
23.49
Expected Value
25.07
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Wendys stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Wendys stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria115.6544
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.2447
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0121
SAESum of the absolute errors14.9296
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Wendys Company. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Wendys. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Wendys

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Wendys Company. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Wendys' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Wendys in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
20.8522.4324.01
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
20.1825.5827.16
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
19.9120.8721.84
Details
19 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
23.0026.6631.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Wendys. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Wendys' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Wendys' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Wendys Company.

Other Forecasting Options for Wendys

For every potential investor in Wendys, whether a beginner or expert, Wendys' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Wendys Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Wendys. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Wendys' price trends.

Wendys Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Wendys stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Wendys could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Wendys by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
McDonalds CorpStarbucks CorpWorld Wrestling EnteAmn Healthcare ServicesTwist Bioscience CorpFreedom Holding CorpGx Nasdaq-100 CoveredFranklin Mutual EuropeanBhp BillitonNatural Hlth TrdUSA Value FactorBetapro Canadian GoldAramark Holdings CorpLong-Term Govt BondSeagate Technology Hldgs
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Wendys Company Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Wendys' price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Wendys' current price.

Wendys Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Wendys stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Wendys shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Wendys stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Wendys Company entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Wendys Risk Indicators

The analysis of Wendys' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Wendys' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Wendys stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Be your own money manager

Our tools can tell you how much better you can do entering a position in Wendys without increasing your portfolio risk or giving up the expected return. As an individual investor, you need to find a reliable way to track all your investment portfolios. However, your requirements will often be based on how much of the process you decide to do yourself. In addition to allowing all investors analytical transparency into all their portfolios, our tools can evaluate risk-adjusted returns of your individual positions relative to your overall portfolio.

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Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Wendys to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Wendys Company information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Wendys' statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Idea Optimizer module to use advanced portfolio builder with pre-computed micro ideas to build optimal portfolio .

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When running Wendys Company price analysis, check to measure Wendys' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Wendys is operating at the current time. Most of Wendys' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Wendys' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Wendys' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Wendys to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Wendys' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Wendys. If investors know Wendys will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Wendys listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
0.32
Market Capitalization
4.8 B
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
0.15
Return On Assets
0.038
Return On Equity
0.38
The market value of Wendys Company is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Wendys that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Wendys' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Wendys' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Wendys' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Wendys' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Wendys' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Wendys value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Wendys' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.