Weibo Corp Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

WB
 Stock
  

USD 16.42  1.27  8.38%   

Weibo Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Weibo Corp historical stock prices and determine the direction of Weibo Corp's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Weibo Corp historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Weibo Corp naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm we recommend to always cross-verify it against solid analysis of Weibo Corp systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Weibo Corp fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Weibo Corp to cross-verify your projections.
  
As of December 2, 2022, Asset Turnover is expected to decline to 0.53. The current year Issuance Purchase of Equity Shares is expected to grow to about 9.2 M, whereas Weighted Average Shares is forecasted to decline to about 170.5 M.

Open Interest Agains t 2022-12-02 Weibo Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Weibo Corp's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest Weibo Corp's options reflect these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short trading strategies Weibo Corp stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note, to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Weibo Corp's open interest, investors have to compare it to Weibo Corp's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Weibo Corp is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Weibo. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Weibo Corp cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Weibo Corp's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Weibo Corp's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for Weibo Corp is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Weibo Corp value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Weibo Corp Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 3rd of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Weibo Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 14.60 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.66, mean absolute percentage error of 0.69, and the sum of the absolute errors of 40.10.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Weibo Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Weibo Corp's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Weibo Corp Stock Forecast Pattern

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Weibo Corp Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Weibo Corp's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Weibo Corp's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 9.43 and 19.77, respectively. We have considered Weibo Corp's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value 16.42
14.60
Expected Value
19.77
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Weibo Corp stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Weibo Corp stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria117.7405
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.6573
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0454
SAESum of the absolute errors40.0979
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Weibo Corp. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Weibo Corp. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Weibo Corp

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Weibo Corp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Weibo Corp's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Weibo Corp in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
11.3316.5221.71
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
14.8824.6129.80
Details
2 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
24.0052.6774.00
Details
Earnings
Estimates (2)
LowProjected EPSHigh
0.540.550.55
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Weibo Corp. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Weibo Corp's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Weibo Corp's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Weibo Corp.

Other Forecasting Options for Weibo Corp

For every potential investor in Weibo, whether a beginner or expert, Weibo Corp's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Weibo Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Weibo. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Weibo Corp's price trends.

Weibo Corp Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Weibo Corp stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Weibo Corp could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Weibo Corp by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
Anheuser Busch InbevEtsy IncLinde PLCAnheuser-Busch InBev SANVThe Travelers CompaniesJohnson JohnsonCaterpillarAmerican ExpressCoca-ColaAMN Healthcare ServicesTwist Bioscience CorpFreedom Holding CorpGlobal X NASDAQFRANKLIN MUTUAL EUROPEANBHP Group Limited
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Weibo Corp Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Weibo Corp's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Weibo Corp's current price.

Weibo Corp Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Weibo Corp stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Weibo Corp shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Weibo Corp stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Weibo Corp entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Weibo Corp Risk Indicators

The analysis of Weibo Corp's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Weibo Corp's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Weibo Corp stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Be your own money manager

Our tools can tell you how much better you can do entering a position in Weibo Corp without increasing your portfolio risk or giving up the expected return. As an individual investor, you need to find a reliable way to track all your investment portfolios. However, your requirements will often be based on how much of the process you decide to do yourself. In addition to allowing all investors analytical transparency into all their portfolios, our tools can evaluate risk-adjusted returns of your individual positions relative to your overall portfolio.

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Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Weibo Corp to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Weibo Corp information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Weibo Corp's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Global Markets Map module to get a quick overview of global market snapshot using zoomable world map. Drill down to check world indexes.

Complementary Tools for Weibo Stock analysis

When running Weibo Corp price analysis, check to measure Weibo Corp's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Weibo Corp is operating at the current time. Most of Weibo Corp's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Weibo Corp's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Weibo Corp's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Weibo Corp to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Weibo Corp's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Weibo Corp. If investors know Weibo will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Weibo Corp listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
(0.66) 
Market Capitalization
3.8 B
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
(0.25) 
Return On Assets
0.0464
Return On Equity
0.012
The market value of Weibo Corp is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Weibo that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Weibo Corp's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Weibo Corp's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Weibo Corp's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Weibo Corp's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Weibo Corp's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Weibo Corp value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Weibo Corp's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.