Vertex Energy Stock Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing

VTNR
 Stock
  

USD 8.70  0.10  1.16%   

Vertex Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Vertex Energy historical stock prices and determine the direction of Vertex Energy's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Vertex Energy historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Vertex Energy naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm we recommend to always cross-verify it against solid analysis of Vertex Energy systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Vertex Energy fundamentals over time.
Also, please take a look at Historical Fundamental Analysis of Vertex Energy to cross-verify your projections.
  
Vertex Energy PPandE Turnover is relatively stable at the moment as compared to the past year. Vertex Energy reported last year PPandE Turnover of 3.98. As of 11/26/2022, Receivables Turnover is likely to grow to 18.29, while Inventory Turnover is likely to drop 22.92. . As of 11/26/2022, Weighted Average Shares is likely to grow to about 60.7 M. Also, Weighted Average Shares Diluted is likely to grow to about 60.7 M.

Open Interest Agains t 2022-12-16 Vertex Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Vertex Energy's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest Vertex Energy's options reflect these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short trading strategies Vertex Energy stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note, to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Vertex Energy's open interest, investors have to compare it to Vertex Energy's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Vertex Energy is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Vertex. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Vertex Energy cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Vertex Energy's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Vertex Energy's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Double exponential smoothing - also known as Holt exponential smoothing is a refinement of the popular simple exponential smoothing model with an additional trending component. Double exponential smoothing model for Vertex Energy works best with periods where there are trends or seasonality.

Vertex Energy Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 27th of November

Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Vertex Energy on the next trading day is expected to be 8.78 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.32, mean absolute percentage error of 0.19, and the sum of the absolute errors of 19.22.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Vertex Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Vertex Energy's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Vertex Energy Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Vertex EnergyVertex Energy Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Vertex Energy Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Vertex Energy's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Vertex Energy's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 3.43 and 14.13, respectively. We have considered Vertex Energy's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value 8.70
8.78
Expected Value
14.13
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Vertex Energy stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Vertex Energy stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.0649
MADMean absolute deviation0.3204
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0418
SAESum of the absolute errors19.224
When Vertex Energy prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any Vertex Energy trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent Vertex Energy observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for Vertex Energy

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Vertex Energy. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Vertex Energy's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Vertex Energy in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
3.368.7314.10
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
5.5310.9016.27
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
8.168.498.83
Details
2 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
14.0019.5025.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Vertex Energy. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Vertex Energy's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Vertex Energy's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Vertex Energy.

Other Forecasting Options for Vertex Energy

For every potential investor in Vertex, whether a beginner or expert, Vertex Energy's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Vertex Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Vertex. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Vertex Energy's price trends.

Vertex Energy Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Vertex Energy stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Vertex Energy could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Vertex Energy by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
Marathon Petroleum CorpMEDIVOLVE INCValero Energy CorpAmn Healthcare ServicesTwist Bioscience CorpFreedom Holding CorpGx Nasdaq-100 CoveredFranklin Mutual EuropeanBhp BillitonNatural Hlth TrdUSA Value FactorBetapro Canadian GoldAramark Holdings CorpLong-Term Govt BondSeagate Technology Hldgs
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Vertex Energy Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Vertex Energy's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Vertex Energy's current price.

Vertex Energy Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Vertex Energy stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Vertex Energy shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Vertex Energy stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Vertex Energy entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Vertex Energy Risk Indicators

The analysis of Vertex Energy's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Vertex Energy's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Vertex Energy stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Be your own money manager

Our tools can tell you how much better you can do entering a position in Vertex Energy without increasing your portfolio risk or giving up the expected return. As an individual investor, you need to find a reliable way to track all your investment portfolios. However, your requirements will often be based on how much of the process you decide to do yourself. In addition to allowing all investors analytical transparency into all their portfolios, our tools can evaluate risk-adjusted returns of your individual positions relative to your overall portfolio.

Did you try this?

Run Watchlist Optimization Now

   

Watchlist Optimization

Optimize watchlists to build efficient portfolio or rebalance existing positions based on mean-variance optimization algorithm
All  Next Launch Module

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.
Also, please take a look at Historical Fundamental Analysis of Vertex Energy to cross-verify your projections. You can also try Options Analysis module to analyze and evaluate options and option chains as a potential hedge for your portfolios.

Complementary Tools for analysis

When running Vertex Energy price analysis, check to measure Vertex Energy's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Vertex Energy is operating at the current time. Most of Vertex Energy's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Vertex Energy's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Vertex Energy's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Vertex Energy to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
Insider Screener
Find insiders across different sectors to evaluate their impact on performance
Go
Insider Screener
Find insiders across different sectors to evaluate their impact on performance
Go
Premium Stories
Follow Macroaxis premium stories from verified contributors across different equity types, categories and coverage scope
Go
Watchlist Optimization
Optimize watchlists to build efficient portfolio or rebalance existing positions based on mean-variance optimization algorithm
Go
Options Analysis
Analyze and evaluate options and option chains as a potential hedge for your portfolios
Go
Insider Screener
Find insiders across different sectors to evaluate their impact on performance
Go
Analyst Recommendations
Analyst recommendations and target price estimates broken down by several categories
Go
Watchlist Optimization
Optimize watchlists to build efficient portfolio or rebalance existing positions based on mean-variance optimization algorithm
Go
Content Syndication
Quickly integrate customizable finance content to your own investment portal
Go
Insider Screener
Find insiders across different sectors to evaluate their impact on performance
Go
Idea Optimizer
Use advanced portfolio builder with pre-computed micro ideas to build optimal portfolio
Go
Theme Ratings
Determine theme ratings based on digital equity recommendations. Macroaxis theme ratings are based on combination of fundamental analysis and risk-adjusted market performance
Go
Idea Optimizer
Use advanced portfolio builder with pre-computed micro ideas to build optimal portfolio
Go
Is Vertex Energy's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Vertex Energy. If investors know Vertex will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Vertex Energy listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
1.27
Market Capitalization
636.4 M
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
14.89
Return On Assets
(0.0208) 
Return On Equity
(0.79) 
The market value of Vertex Energy is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Vertex that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Vertex Energy's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Vertex Energy's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Vertex Energy's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Vertex Energy's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Vertex Energy's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Vertex Energy value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Vertex Energy's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.