VANGUARD TOTAL Mutual Fund Forecast - Naive Prediction

VSTSX
 Fund
  

USD 188.43  1.48  0.78%   

VANGUARD Mutual Fund Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast VANGUARD TOTAL historical stock prices and determine the direction of VANGUARD TOTAL STOCK's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of VANGUARD TOTAL historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Also, please take a look at Historical Fundamental Analysis of VANGUARD TOTAL to cross-verify your projections.
  
Most investors in VANGUARD TOTAL cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the VANGUARD TOTAL's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets VANGUARD TOTAL's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for VANGUARD TOTAL is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of VANGUARD TOTAL STOCK value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

VANGUARD TOTAL Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 10th of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of VANGUARD TOTAL STOCK on the next trading day is expected to be 186.14 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.46, mean absolute percentage error of 8.76, and the sum of the absolute errors of 149.95.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict VANGUARD Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that VANGUARD TOTAL's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

VANGUARD TOTAL Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern

Backtest VANGUARD TOTALVANGUARD TOTAL Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

VANGUARD TOTAL Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting VANGUARD TOTAL's Mutual Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. VANGUARD TOTAL's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 184.44 and 187.84, respectively. We have considered VANGUARD TOTAL's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value 188.43
184.44
Downside
186.14
Expected Value
187.84
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of VANGUARD TOTAL mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent VANGUARD TOTAL mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria120.2812
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation2.4582
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0135
SAESum of the absolute errors149.9491
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of VANGUARD TOTAL STOCK. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict VANGUARD TOTAL. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for VANGUARD TOTAL

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as VANGUARD TOTAL STOCK. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of VANGUARD TOTAL's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of VANGUARD TOTAL in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
186.72188.43190.14
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
185.54187.25188.96
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
181.29189.58197.87
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as VANGUARD TOTAL. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against VANGUARD TOTAL's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, VANGUARD TOTAL's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in VANGUARD TOTAL STOCK.

Other Forecasting Options for VANGUARD TOTAL

For every potential investor in VANGUARD, whether a beginner or expert, VANGUARD TOTAL's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. VANGUARD Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in VANGUARD. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying VANGUARD TOTAL's price trends.

VANGUARD TOTAL Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with VANGUARD TOTAL mutual fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of VANGUARD TOTAL could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing VANGUARD TOTAL by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
C WorldWide InternationalLord Abbett InternationalMFS Intrinsic ValueSprott Physical GoldNinety One InternationalLord Abbett InternationalLord Abbett InternationalWCM InternationalAMN Healthcare ServicesTwist Bioscience CorpFreedom Holding CorpGlobal X NASDAQFRANKLIN MUTUAL EUROPEANBHP Group LimitedNatural Health Trend
 Risk & Return  Correlation

VANGUARD TOTAL STOCK Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of VANGUARD TOTAL's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of VANGUARD TOTAL's current price.

VANGUARD TOTAL Risk Indicators

The analysis of VANGUARD TOTAL's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in VANGUARD TOTAL's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting VANGUARD TOTAL stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards VANGUARD TOTAL in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, VANGUARD TOTAL's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from VANGUARD TOTAL options trading.

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.
Also, please take a look at Historical Fundamental Analysis of VANGUARD TOTAL to cross-verify your projections. You can also try CEO Directory module to screen CEOs from public companies around the world.

Complementary Tools for analysis

When running VANGUARD TOTAL STOCK price analysis, check to measure VANGUARD TOTAL's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy VANGUARD TOTAL is operating at the current time. Most of VANGUARD TOTAL's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of VANGUARD TOTAL's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move VANGUARD TOTAL's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of VANGUARD TOTAL to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Please note, there is a significant difference between VANGUARD TOTAL's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine VANGUARD TOTAL value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, VANGUARD TOTAL's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.