Verisk Analytics Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

VRSK
 Stock
  

USD 185.44  0.70  0.38%   

Verisk Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Verisk Analytics historical stock prices and determine the direction of Verisk Analytics's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Verisk Analytics historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Verisk Analytics naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm we recommend to always cross-verify it against solid analysis of Verisk Analytics systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Verisk Analytics fundamentals over time.
Also, please take a look at Historical Fundamental Analysis of Verisk Analytics to cross-verify your projections.
  
The current PPandE Turnover is estimated to increase to 6.56. The current Receivables Turnover is estimated to increase to 8.22. Verisk Analytics Weighted Average Shares is decreasing as compared to previous years. The last year's value of Weighted Average Shares was reported at 161.84 Million. The current Weighted Average Shares Diluted is estimated to increase to about 184.6 M, while Issuance Purchase of Equity Shares is projected to decrease to (277.4 M).

Open Interest Agains t 2022-12-16 Verisk Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Verisk Analytics' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest Verisk Analytics' options reflect these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short trading strategies Verisk Analytics stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note, to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Verisk Analytics' open interest, investors have to compare it to Verisk Analytics' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Verisk Analytics is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Verisk. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Verisk Analytics cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Verisk Analytics' time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Verisk Analytics' price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for Verisk Analytics is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Verisk Analytics value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Verisk Analytics Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 5th of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Verisk Analytics on the next trading day is expected to be 189.05 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.15, mean absolute percentage error of 15.38, and the sum of the absolute errors of 192.33.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Verisk Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Verisk Analytics' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Verisk Analytics Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Verisk AnalyticsVerisk Analytics Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Verisk Analytics Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Verisk Analytics' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Verisk Analytics' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 186.97 and 191.13, respectively. We have considered Verisk Analytics' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value 185.44
186.97
Downside
189.05
Expected Value
191.13
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Verisk Analytics stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Verisk Analytics stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria120.8436
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation3.153
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.018
SAESum of the absolute errors192.3304
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Verisk Analytics. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Verisk Analytics. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Verisk Analytics

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Verisk Analytics. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Verisk Analytics' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Verisk Analytics in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
183.35185.43187.51
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
166.90204.43206.51
Details
8 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
177.00226.67255.00
Details
Earnings
Estimates (7)
LowProjected EPSHigh
5.155.245.30
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Verisk Analytics. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Verisk Analytics' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Verisk Analytics' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Verisk Analytics.

Other Forecasting Options for Verisk Analytics

For every potential investor in Verisk, whether a beginner or expert, Verisk Analytics' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Verisk Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Verisk. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Verisk Analytics' price trends.

Verisk Analytics Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Verisk Analytics stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Verisk Analytics could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Verisk Analytics by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
ABM Industries IncorAcco BrandsAcme UnitedADT IncAqua MetalsARC Document SolutionsASGN IncBarrett Business ServicesBG StaffingAMN Healthcare ServicesTwist Bioscience CorpFreedom Holding CorpGlobal X NASDAQFRANKLIN MUTUAL EUROPEANBHP Group Limited
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Verisk Analytics Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Verisk Analytics' price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Verisk Analytics' current price.

Verisk Analytics Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Verisk Analytics stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Verisk Analytics shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Verisk Analytics stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Verisk Analytics entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Verisk Analytics Risk Indicators

The analysis of Verisk Analytics' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Verisk Analytics' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Verisk Analytics stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Verisk Analytics Investors Sentiment

The influence of Verisk Analytics' investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in Verisk. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock markets does not have a solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.
Investor biases related to Verisk Analytics' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with investment in Verisk. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Verisk can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Verisk Analytics. Please note that most equiteis that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Verisk Analytics' market sentiment shows the aggregated news analyzed to detect positive and negative mentions from the text and comments. The data is normalized to provide daily scores for Verisk Analytics' and other traded tickers. The bigger the bubble, the more accurate is the estimated score. Higher bars for a given day show more participation in the average Verisk Analytics' news discussions. The higher the estimated score, the more favorable is the investor's outlook on Verisk Analytics.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Verisk Analytics in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Verisk Analytics' short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Verisk Analytics options trading.

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.
Also, please take a look at Historical Fundamental Analysis of Verisk Analytics to cross-verify your projections. You can also try Companies Directory module to evaluate performance of over 100,000 Stocks, Funds, and ETFs against different fundamentals.

Complementary Tools for analysis

When running Verisk Analytics price analysis, check to measure Verisk Analytics' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Verisk Analytics is operating at the current time. Most of Verisk Analytics' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Verisk Analytics' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Verisk Analytics' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Verisk Analytics to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Verisk Analytics' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Verisk Analytics. If investors know Verisk will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Verisk Analytics listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
(0.032) 
Market Capitalization
29 B
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
(0.018) 
Return On Assets
0.0997
Return On Equity
0.44
The market value of Verisk Analytics is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Verisk that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Verisk Analytics' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Verisk Analytics' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Verisk Analytics' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Verisk Analytics' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Verisk Analytics' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Verisk Analytics value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Verisk Analytics' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.