Vanachai Group Stock Forecast - Polynomial Regression

VNG
 Stock
  

THB 5.80  0.05  0.85%   

Vanachai Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Vanachai Group historical stock prices and determine the direction of Vanachai Group Public's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Vanachai Group historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Also, please take a look at Historical Fundamental Analysis of Vanachai Group to cross-verify your projections.
  
Most investors in Vanachai Group cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Vanachai Group's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Vanachai Group's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Vanachai Group polinomial regression implements a single variable polynomial regression model using the daily prices as the independent variable. The coefficients of the regression for Vanachai Group Public as well as the accuracy indicators are determined from the period prices.

Vanachai Group Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 3rd of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Vanachai Group Public on the next trading day is expected to be 5.66 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.09, mean absolute percentage error of 0.017363, and the sum of the absolute errors of 5.87.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Vanachai Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Vanachai Group's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Vanachai Group Stock Forecast Pattern

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Vanachai Group Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Vanachai Group's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Vanachai Group's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 3.93 and 7.40, respectively. We have considered Vanachai Group's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value 5.80
5.66
Expected Value
7.40
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Vanachai Group stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Vanachai Group stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria115.8949
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.0946
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0154
SAESum of the absolute errors5.867
A single variable polynomial regression model attempts to put a curve through the Vanachai Group historical price points. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, this line can be indicated as: Y = a0 + a1*X + a2*X2 + a3*X3 + ... + am*Xm

Predictive Modules for Vanachai Group

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Vanachai Group Public. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Vanachai Group's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Vanachai Group in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
4.135.857.57
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
3.515.236.95
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Vanachai Group. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Vanachai Group's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Vanachai Group's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Vanachai Group Public.

Other Forecasting Options for Vanachai Group

For every potential investor in Vanachai, whether a beginner or expert, Vanachai Group's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Vanachai Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Vanachai. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Vanachai Group's price trends.

Vanachai Group Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Vanachai Group stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Vanachai Group could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Vanachai Group by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
Vanachai Group PublicAMN Healthcare ServicesTwist Bioscience CorpFreedom Holding CorpGlobal X NASDAQFRANKLIN MUTUAL EUROPEANBHP Group LimitedNatural Health TrendIShares MSCI USABetaPro Canadian GoldAramark HoldingsVanguard Long-TermSeagate Technology PLCVistra Energy CorpExxon Mobil Corp
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Vanachai Group Public Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Vanachai Group's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Vanachai Group's current price.

Vanachai Group Risk Indicators

The analysis of Vanachai Group's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Vanachai Group's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Vanachai Group stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Vanachai Group in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Vanachai Group's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Vanachai Group options trading.

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.
Also, please take a look at Historical Fundamental Analysis of Vanachai Group to cross-verify your projections. You can also try Options Analysis module to analyze and evaluate options and option chains as a potential hedge for your portfolios.

Complementary Tools for analysis

When running Vanachai Group Public price analysis, check to measure Vanachai Group's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Vanachai Group is operating at the current time. Most of Vanachai Group's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Vanachai Group's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Vanachai Group's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Vanachai Group to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Please note, there is a significant difference between Vanachai Group's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Vanachai Group value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Vanachai Group's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.