VF Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

VFC
 Stock
  

USD 29.08  0.48  1.62%   

VF Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast VF historical stock prices and determine the direction of VF Corporation's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of VF historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although VF naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm we recommend to always cross-verify it against solid analysis of VF Corporation systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of VF fundamentals over time.
Also, please take a look at Historical Fundamental Analysis of VF to cross-verify your projections.
  
VF PPandE Turnover is projected to slightly decrease based on the last few years of reporting. The past year's PPandE Turnover was at 11.77. The current year Receivables Turnover is expected to grow to 9.56, whereas Inventory Turnover is forecasted to decline to 4.34. . The current year Weighted Average Shares is expected to grow to about 424.4 M. The current year Weighted Average Shares Diluted is expected to grow to about 428.7 M.

Open Interest Agains t 2022-12-09 VF Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast VF's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest VF's options reflect these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short trading strategies VF stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note, to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current VF's open interest, investors have to compare it to VF's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of VF is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in VF. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in VF cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the VF's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets VF's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for VF is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of VF Corporation value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

VF Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 7th of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of VF Corporation on the next trading day is expected to be 27.92 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.81, mean absolute percentage error of 1.12, and the sum of the absolute errors of 49.65.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict VF Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that VF's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

VF Stock Forecast Pattern

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VF Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting VF's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. VF's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 24.26 and 31.57, respectively. We have considered VF's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value 29.08
27.92
Expected Value
31.57
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of VF stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent VF stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria118.2219
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.8139
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0261
SAESum of the absolute errors49.6482
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of VF Corporation. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict VF. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for VF

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as VF Corporation. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of VF's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of VF in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
25.5629.2933.02
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
26.5642.5746.30
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
26.4131.2936.17
Details
15 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
72.0086.47100.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as VF. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against VF's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, VF's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in VF Corporation.

Other Forecasting Options for VF

For every potential investor in VF, whether a beginner or expert, VF's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. VF Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in VF. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying VF's price trends.

VF Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with VF stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of VF could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing VF by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
Aarons IncAramark HoldingsBig LotsConAgra FoodsChurch DwightChicos FASColgate-PalmoliveDillardsDISH NetworkAMN Healthcare ServicesTwist Bioscience CorpFreedom Holding CorpGlobal X NASDAQFRANKLIN MUTUAL EUROPEANBHP Group Limited
 Risk & Return  Correlation

VF Corporation Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of VF's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of VF's current price.

VF Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how VF stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading VF shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying VF stock market strength indicators, traders can identify VF Corporation entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

VF Risk Indicators

The analysis of VF's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in VF's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting VF stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Be your own money manager

Our tools can tell you how much better you can do entering a position in VF without increasing your portfolio risk or giving up the expected return. As an individual investor, you need to find a reliable way to track all your investment portfolios. However, your requirements will often be based on how much of the process you decide to do yourself. In addition to allowing all investors analytical transparency into all their portfolios, our tools can evaluate risk-adjusted returns of your individual positions relative to your overall portfolio.

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Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.
Also, please take a look at Historical Fundamental Analysis of VF to cross-verify your projections. Note that the VF Corporation information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other VF's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Share Portfolio module to track or share privately all of your investments from the convenience of any device.

Complementary Tools for VF Stock analysis

When running VF Corporation price analysis, check to measure VF's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy VF is operating at the current time. Most of VF's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of VF's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move VF's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of VF to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is VF's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of VF. If investors know VF will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about VF listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
(0.11) 
Market Capitalization
11.5 B
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
(0.037) 
Return On Assets
0.066
Return On Equity
0.13
The market value of VF Corporation is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of VF that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of VF's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is VF's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because VF's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect VF's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between VF's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine VF value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, VF's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.