Visa Stock Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing

V
 Stock
  

USD 215.87  2.40  1.12%   

Visa Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Visa historical stock prices and determine the direction of Visa Inc's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Visa historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Visa naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm we recommend to always cross-verify it against solid analysis of Visa Inc systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Visa fundamentals over time.
Also, please take a look at Historical Fundamental Analysis of Visa to cross-verify your projections.
  
Visa Receivables Turnover is fairly stable at the moment as compared to the past year. Visa reported Receivables Turnover of 8.39 in 2021. Cash and Equivalents Turnover is likely to climb to 1.74 in 2022, whereas PPandE Turnover is likely to drop 7.38 in 2022. . Visa Weighted Average Shares is fairly stable at the moment as compared to the past year. Visa reported Weighted Average Shares of 2.24 Billion in 2021. Weighted Average Shares Diluted is likely to climb to about 2.8 B in 2022, whereas Issuance Purchase of Equity Shares is likely to drop (8.1 B) in 2022.

Open Interest Agains t 2022-08-12 Visa Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Visa's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest Visa's options reflect these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short trading strategies Visa stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note, to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Visa's open interest, investors have to compare it to Visa's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Visa is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Visa. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Visa cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Visa's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Visa's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Triple exponential smoothing for Visa - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When Visa prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in Visa price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of Visa Inc.

Visa Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 8th of August

Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Visa Inc on the next trading day is expected to be 216.60 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.19, mean absolute percentage error of 15.76, and the sum of the absolute errors of 188.13.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Visa Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Visa's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Visa Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest VisaVisa Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Visa Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Visa's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Visa's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 214.83 and 218.36, respectively. We have considered Visa's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value 215.87
214.83
Downside
216.60
Expected Value
218.36
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Visa stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Visa stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.4879
MADMean absolute deviation3.1886
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0157
SAESum of the absolute errors188.1289
As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past Visa observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older Visa Inc observations.

Predictive Modules for Visa

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Visa Inc. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Visa's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Visa in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
215.22216.99218.76
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
194.28241.99243.76
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
206.97212.70218.42
Details
23 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
220.00270.26309.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Visa. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Visa's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Visa's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Visa Inc.

Other Forecasting Options for Visa

For every potential investor in Visa, whether a beginner or expert, Visa's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Visa Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Visa. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Visa's price trends.

Visa Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Visa stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Visa could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Visa by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
Pitney BowesStarbucks CorpCoca-ColaChevron CorpInternational BusinessCisco SystemsPfizer IncAlcoa CorpMicrosoft CorpAmn Healthcare ServicesTwist Bioscience CorpFreedom Holding CorpKEURIG DR PEPPERGX Nasdaq-100 CoveredFranklin Mutual European
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Visa Inc Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Visa's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Visa's current price.

Visa Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Visa stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Visa shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Visa stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Visa Inc entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Visa Risk Indicators

The analysis of Visa's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Visa's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Visa stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Be your own money manager

Our tools can tell you how much better you can do entering a position in Visa without increasing your portfolio risk or giving up expected return. As an individual investor, you need to find a reliable way to track all your investment portfolios. However, your requirements will often be based on how much of the process you decide to do yourself. In addition to allowing all investors analytical transparency into all their portfolios, our tools can evaluate.risk-adjusted returns of your individual positions relative to your overall portfolio.

Did you try this?

Run Bollinger Bands Now

   

Bollinger Bands

Use Bollinger Bands indicator to analyze target price for a given investing horizon
All  Next Launch Module

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.
Also, please take a look at Historical Fundamental Analysis of Visa to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Visa Inc information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Visa's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Portfolio Center module to all portfolio management and optimization tools to improve performance of your portfolios.

Complementary Tools for Visa Stock analysis

When running Visa Inc price analysis, check to measure Visa's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Visa is operating at the current time. Most of Visa's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Visa's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Visa's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Visa to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
Premium Stories
Follow Macroaxis premium stories from verified contributors across different equity types, categories and coverage scope
Go
Portfolio Center
All portfolio management and optimization tools to improve performance of your portfolios
Go
Content Syndication
Quickly integrate customizable finance content to your own investment portal
Go
Portfolio Rebalancing
Analyze risk-adjusted returns against different time horizons to find asset-allocation targets
Go
Companies Directory
Evaluate performance of over 100,000 Stocks, Funds, and ETFs against different fundamentals
Go
Portfolio Manager
State of the art Portfolio Manager to monitor and improve performance of your invested capital
Go
Watchlist Optimization
Optimize watchlists to build efficient portfolio or rebalance existing positions based on mean-variance optimization algorithm
Go
Portfolio Optimization
Compute new portfolio that will generate highest expected return given your specified tolerance for risk
Go
Financial Widgets
Easily integrated Macroaxis content with over 30 different plug-and-play financial widgets
Go
My Watchlist Analysis
Analyze my current watchlist and to refresh optimization strategy. Macroaxis watchlist is based on self-learning algorithm to remember stocks you like
Go
Bond Directory
Find actively traded corporate debentures issued by US companies
Go
Idea Optimizer
Use advanced portfolio builder with pre-computed micro ideas to build optimal portfolio
Go
Is Visa's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Visa. If investors know Visa will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Visa listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
0.36
Market Capitalization
455.7 B
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
0.19
Return On Assets
0.14
Return On Equity
0.4
The market value of Visa Inc is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Visa that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Visa's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Visa's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Visa's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Visa's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Visa's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Visa value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Visa's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.