ProShares Ultra Etf Forecast - Naive Prediction

UVXY
 Etf
  

USD 7.70  0.14  1.85%   

ProShares Etf Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast ProShares Ultra historical stock prices and determine the direction of ProShares Ultra VIX's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of ProShares Ultra historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Also, please take a look at Historical Fundamental Analysis of ProShares Ultra to cross-verify your projections.
  

Open Interest Agains t 2022-12-09 ProShares Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast ProShares Ultra's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest ProShares Ultra's options reflect these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short trading strategies ProShares Ultra stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note, to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current ProShares Ultra's open interest, investors have to compare it to ProShares Ultra's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of ProShares Ultra is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in ProShares. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in ProShares Ultra cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the ProShares Ultra's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets ProShares Ultra's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for ProShares Ultra is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of ProShares Ultra VIX value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

ProShares Ultra Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 10th of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of ProShares Ultra VIX on the next trading day is expected to be 7.27 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.42, mean absolute percentage error of 0.25, and the sum of the absolute errors of 25.70.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict ProShares Etf prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that ProShares Ultra's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

ProShares Ultra Etf Forecast Pattern

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ProShares Ultra Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting ProShares Ultra's Etf value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. ProShares Ultra's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 3.16 and 11.39, respectively. We have considered ProShares Ultra's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value 7.70
7.27
Expected Value
11.39
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of ProShares Ultra etf data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent ProShares Ultra etf, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria116.7047
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.4213
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.041
SAESum of the absolute errors25.6989
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of ProShares Ultra VIX. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict ProShares Ultra. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for ProShares Ultra

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as ProShares Ultra VIX. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of ProShares Ultra's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of ProShares Ultra in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
3.417.5611.71
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
3.387.5311.68
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
6.688.4410.21
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as ProShares Ultra. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against ProShares Ultra's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, ProShares Ultra's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in ProShares Ultra VIX.

Other Forecasting Options for ProShares Ultra

For every potential investor in ProShares, whether a beginner or expert, ProShares Ultra's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. ProShares Etf price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in ProShares. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying ProShares Ultra's price trends.

ProShares Ultra Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with ProShares Ultra etf to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of ProShares Ultra could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing ProShares Ultra by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
AMN Healthcare ServicesTwist Bioscience CorpFreedom Holding CorpGlobal X NASDAQFRANKLIN MUTUAL EUROPEANBHP Group LimitedNatural Health TrendIShares MSCI USABetaPro Canadian GoldAramark HoldingsVanguard Long-TermSeagate Technology PLCVistra Energy CorpExxon Mobil CorpPowered Brands
 Risk & Return  Correlation

ProShares Ultra VIX Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of ProShares Ultra's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of ProShares Ultra's current price.

ProShares Ultra Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how ProShares Ultra etf reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading ProShares Ultra shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying ProShares Ultra etf market strength indicators, traders can identify ProShares Ultra VIX entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

ProShares Ultra Risk Indicators

The analysis of ProShares Ultra's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in ProShares Ultra's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting ProShares Ultra stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Be your own money manager

Our tools can tell you how much better you can do entering a position in ProShares Ultra without increasing your portfolio risk or giving up the expected return. As an individual investor, you need to find a reliable way to track all your investment portfolios. However, your requirements will often be based on how much of the process you decide to do yourself. In addition to allowing all investors analytical transparency into all their portfolios, our tools can evaluate risk-adjusted returns of your individual positions relative to your overall portfolio.

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Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.
Also, please take a look at Historical Fundamental Analysis of ProShares Ultra to cross-verify your projections. You can also try Portfolio Center module to all portfolio management and optimization tools to improve performance of your portfolios.

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The market value of ProShares Ultra VIX is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of ProShares that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of ProShares Ultra's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is ProShares Ultra's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because ProShares Ultra's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect ProShares Ultra's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between ProShares Ultra's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine ProShares Ultra value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, ProShares Ultra's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.