United Rentals Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

URI
 Stock
  

USD 358.99  3.18  0.88%   

United Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast United Rentals historical stock prices and determine the direction of United Rentals's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of United Rentals historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although United Rentals naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm we recommend to always cross-verify it against solid analysis of United Rentals systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of United Rentals fundamentals over time.
Also, please take a look at Historical Fundamental Analysis of United Rentals to cross-verify your projections.
  
United Rentals Asset Turnover is most likely to slightly decrease in the upcoming years. The last year's value of Asset Turnover was reported at 0.51. The current Weighted Average Shares Diluted is estimated to increase to about 87.4 M, while Weighted Average Shares is projected to decrease to roughly 72.1 M.

Open Interest Agains t 2022-12-09 United Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast United Rentals' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest United Rentals' options reflect these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short trading strategies United Rentals stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note, to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current United Rentals' open interest, investors have to compare it to United Rentals' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of United Rentals is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in United. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in United Rentals cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the United Rentals' time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets United Rentals' price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for United Rentals is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of United Rentals value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

United Rentals Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 10th of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of United Rentals on the next trading day is expected to be 351.06 with a mean absolute deviation of 6.78, mean absolute percentage error of 73.17, and the sum of the absolute errors of 413.66.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict United Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that United Rentals' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

United Rentals Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest United RentalsUnited Rentals Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

United Rentals Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting United Rentals' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. United Rentals' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 348.43 and 353.68, respectively. We have considered United Rentals' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value 358.99
348.43
Downside
351.06
Expected Value
353.68
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of United Rentals stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent United Rentals stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria122.4033
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation6.7813
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0223
SAESum of the absolute errors413.6609
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of United Rentals. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict United Rentals. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for United Rentals

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as United Rentals. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of United Rentals' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of United Rentals in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
360.06362.68365.30
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
325.48391.58394.20
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
323.17346.88370.59
Details
14 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
265.00386.09500.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as United Rentals. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against United Rentals' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, United Rentals' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in United Rentals.

Other Forecasting Options for United Rentals

For every potential investor in United, whether a beginner or expert, United Rentals' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. United Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in United. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying United Rentals' price trends.

United Rentals Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with United Rentals stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of United Rentals could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing United Rentals by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
Verizon CommunicationsBoeingMerck Company3M CompanyWalt DisneyPfizer IncMicrosoftMcDonaldsAMN Healthcare ServicesTwist Bioscience CorpFreedom Holding CorpGlobal X NASDAQFRANKLIN MUTUAL EUROPEANBHP Group LimitedNatural Health Trend
 Risk & Return  Correlation

United Rentals Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of United Rentals' price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of United Rentals' current price.

United Rentals Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how United Rentals stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading United Rentals shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying United Rentals stock market strength indicators, traders can identify United Rentals entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

United Rentals Risk Indicators

The analysis of United Rentals' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in United Rentals' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting United Rentals stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

United Rentals Investors Sentiment

The influence of United Rentals' investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in United. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock markets does not have a solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.
Investor biases related to United Rentals' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with investment in United. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding United can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around United Rentals. Please note that most equiteis that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
United Rentals' market sentiment shows the aggregated news analyzed to detect positive and negative mentions from the text and comments. The data is normalized to provide daily scores for United Rentals' and other traded tickers. The bigger the bubble, the more accurate is the estimated score. Higher bars for a given day show more participation in the average United Rentals' news discussions. The higher the estimated score, the more favorable is the investor's outlook on United Rentals.

United Rentals Implied Volatility

    
  76.25  
United Rentals' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of United Rentals stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if United Rentals' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that United Rentals stock will not fluctuate a lot when United Rentals' options are near their expiration.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards United Rentals in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, United Rentals' short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from United Rentals options trading.

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.
Also, please take a look at Historical Fundamental Analysis of United Rentals to cross-verify your projections. You can also try Fundamentals Comparison module to compare fundamentals across multiple equities to find investing opportunities.

Complementary Tools for analysis

When running United Rentals price analysis, check to measure United Rentals' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy United Rentals is operating at the current time. Most of United Rentals' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of United Rentals' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move United Rentals' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of United Rentals to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is United Rentals' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of United Rentals. If investors know United will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about United Rentals listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
0.538
Market Capitalization
25.1 B
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
0.175
Return On Assets
0.0893
Return On Equity
0.329
The market value of United Rentals is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of United that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of United Rentals' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is United Rentals' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because United Rentals' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect United Rentals' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between United Rentals' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine United Rentals value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, United Rentals' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.