Urban Outfitters Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

URBN
 Stock
  

USD 21.00  0.31  1.45%   

Urban Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Urban Outfitters historical stock prices and determine the direction of Urban Outfitters's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Urban Outfitters historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Also, please take a look at Historical Fundamental Analysis of Urban Outfitters to cross-verify your projections.
  

Open Interest Agains t 2022-09-30 Urban Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Urban Outfitters' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest Urban Outfitters' options reflect these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short trading strategies Urban Outfitters stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note, to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Urban Outfitters' open interest, investors have to compare it to Urban Outfitters' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Urban Outfitters is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Urban. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Urban Outfitters cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Urban Outfitters' time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Urban Outfitters' price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for Urban Outfitters is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Urban Outfitters value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Urban Outfitters Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 25th of September

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Urban Outfitters on the next trading day is expected to be 21.70 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.60, mean absolute percentage error of 0.61, and the sum of the absolute errors of 36.88.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Urban Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Urban Outfitters' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Urban Outfitters Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Urban OutfittersUrban Outfitters Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Urban Outfitters Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Urban Outfitters' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Urban Outfitters' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 18.41 and 24.99, respectively. We have considered Urban Outfitters' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value 21.00
21.70
Expected Value
24.99
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Urban Outfitters stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Urban Outfitters stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria117.6107
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.6046
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0287
SAESum of the absolute errors36.8835
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Urban Outfitters. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Urban Outfitters. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Urban Outfitters

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Urban Outfitters. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Urban Outfitters' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Urban Outfitters in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
17.6320.9224.21
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
18.9025.7028.99
Details
12 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
31.0039.5546.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Urban Outfitters. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Urban Outfitters' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Urban Outfitters' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Urban Outfitters.

Other Forecasting Options for Urban Outfitters

For every potential investor in Urban, whether a beginner or expert, Urban Outfitters' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Urban Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Urban. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Urban Outfitters' price trends.

Urban Outfitters Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Urban Outfitters stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Urban Outfitters could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Urban Outfitters by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
Industrias BachocoAmn Healthcare ServicesTwist Bioscience CorpFreedom Holding CorpGx Nasdaq-100 CoveredFranklin Mutual EuropeanNatural Hlth TrdUSA Value FactorBetapro Canadian GoldAramark Holdings CorpLong-Term Govt BondMaiden Holdings NorthSeagate Technology HldgsVistra Energy CorpExxon Mobil Corp
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Urban Outfitters Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Urban Outfitters' price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Urban Outfitters' current price.

Urban Outfitters Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Urban Outfitters stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Urban Outfitters shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Urban Outfitters stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Urban Outfitters entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Urban Outfitters Risk Indicators

The analysis of Urban Outfitters' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Urban Outfitters' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Urban Outfitters stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Urban Outfitters Implied Volatility

    
  56.09  
Urban Outfitters' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Urban Outfitters stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Urban Outfitters' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Urban Outfitters stock will not fluctuate a lot when Urban Outfitters' options are near their expiration.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Urban Outfitters in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Urban Outfitters' short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Urban Outfitters options trading.

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.
Also, please take a look at Historical Fundamental Analysis of Urban Outfitters to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Urban Outfitters information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Urban Outfitters' statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Bollinger Bands module to use Bollinger Bands indicator to analyze target price for a given investing horizon.

Complementary Tools for Urban Stock analysis

When running Urban Outfitters price analysis, check to measure Urban Outfitters' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Urban Outfitters is operating at the current time. Most of Urban Outfitters' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Urban Outfitters' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Urban Outfitters' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Urban Outfitters to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Urban Outfitters' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Urban Outfitters. If investors know Urban will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Urban Outfitters listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Urban Outfitters is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Urban that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Urban Outfitters' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Urban Outfitters' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Urban Outfitters' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Urban Outfitters' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Urban Outfitters' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Urban Outfitters value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Urban Outfitters' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.