Trinity Bio Stock Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing

TRIB
 Stock
  

USD 1.09  0.05  4.39%   

Trinity Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Trinity Bio historical stock prices and determine the direction of Trinity Bio ADR's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Trinity Bio historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Additionally, take a look at Historical Fundamental Analysis of Trinity Bio to cross-verify your projections.
  

Open Interest Agains t 2022-10-21 Trinity Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Trinity Bio's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest Trinity Bio's options reflect these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short trading strategies Trinity Bio stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note, to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Trinity Bio's open interest, investors have to compare it to Trinity Bio's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Trinity Bio is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Trinity. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Trinity Bio cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Trinity Bio's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Trinity Bio's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Double exponential smoothing - also known as Holt exponential smoothing is a refinement of the popular simple exponential smoothing model with an additional trending component. Double exponential smoothing model for Trinity Bio works best with periods where there are trends or seasonality.

Trinity Bio Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 25th of September

Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Trinity Bio ADR on the next trading day is expected to be 1.06 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.030206, mean absolute percentage error of 0.00148, and the sum of the absolute errors of 1.78.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Trinity Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Trinity Bio's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Trinity Bio Stock Forecast Pattern

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Trinity Bio Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Trinity Bio's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Trinity Bio's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.0109 and 3.80, respectively. We have considered Trinity Bio's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value 1.09
0.0109
Downside
1.06
Expected Value
3.80
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Trinity Bio stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Trinity Bio stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.0056
MADMean absolute deviation0.0302
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0234
SAESum of the absolute errors1.7821
When Trinity Bio ADR prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any Trinity Bio ADR trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent Trinity Bio observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for Trinity Bio

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Trinity Bio ADR. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Trinity Bio's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Trinity Bio in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
0.061.103.84
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
0.132.635.37
Details
3 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
6.007.258.50
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Trinity Bio. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Trinity Bio's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Trinity Bio's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Trinity Bio ADR.

Other Forecasting Options for Trinity Bio

For every potential investor in Trinity, whether a beginner or expert, Trinity Bio's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Trinity Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Trinity. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Trinity Bio's price trends.

Trinity Bio Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Trinity Bio stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Trinity Bio could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Trinity Bio by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
Sigma Lithium CorpAmn Healthcare ServicesTwist Bioscience CorpFreedom Holding CorpGx Nasdaq-100 CoveredFranklin Mutual EuropeanNatural Hlth TrdUSA Value FactorBetapro Canadian GoldAramark Holdings CorpLong-Term Govt BondMaiden Holdings NorthSeagate Technology HldgsVistra Energy CorpExxon Mobil Corp
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Trinity Bio ADR Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Trinity Bio's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Trinity Bio's current price.

Trinity Bio Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Trinity Bio stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Trinity Bio shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Trinity Bio stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Trinity Bio ADR entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Trinity Bio Risk Indicators

The analysis of Trinity Bio's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Trinity Bio's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Trinity Bio stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Trinity Bio in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Trinity Bio's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Trinity Bio options trading.

Currently Active Assets on Macroaxis

Additionally, take a look at Historical Fundamental Analysis of Trinity Bio to cross-verify your projections. You can also try Portfolio Comparator module to compare the composition, asset allocations and performance of any two portfolios in your account.

Complementary Tools for analysis

When running Trinity Bio ADR price analysis, check to measure Trinity Bio's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Trinity Bio is operating at the current time. Most of Trinity Bio's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Trinity Bio's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Trinity Bio's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Trinity Bio to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Trinity Bio's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Trinity Bio. If investors know Trinity will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Trinity Bio listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Trinity Bio ADR is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Trinity that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Trinity Bio's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Trinity Bio's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Trinity Bio's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Trinity Bio's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Trinity Bio's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Trinity Bio value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Trinity Bio's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.