Toronto Dominion Stock Forecast - Polynomial Regression

TD
 Stock
  

USD 66.80  0.91  1.34%   

Toronto Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Toronto Dominion historical stock prices and determine the direction of Toronto Dominion Bank's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Toronto Dominion historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Additionally, take a look at Historical Fundamental Analysis of Toronto Dominion to cross-verify your projections.
  

Open Interest Agains t 2022-08-19 Toronto Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Toronto Dominion's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest Toronto Dominion's options reflect these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short trading strategies Toronto Dominion stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note, to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Toronto Dominion's open interest, investors have to compare it to Toronto Dominion's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Toronto Dominion is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Toronto. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Toronto Dominion cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Toronto Dominion's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Toronto Dominion's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Toronto Dominion polinomial regression implements a single variable polynomial regression model using the daily prices as the independent variable. The coefficients of the regression for Toronto Dominion Bank as well as the accuracy indicators are determined from the period prices.

Toronto Dominion Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 15th of August 2022

Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Toronto Dominion Bank on the next trading day is expected to be 70.65 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.59, mean absolute percentage error of 3.58, and the sum of the absolute errors of 98.72.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Toronto Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Toronto Dominion's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Toronto Dominion Stock Forecast Pattern

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Toronto Dominion Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Toronto Dominion's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Toronto Dominion's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 69.07 and 72.23, respectively. We have considered Toronto Dominion's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value 66.80
70.65
Expected Value
72.23
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Toronto Dominion stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Toronto Dominion stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria121.2226
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation1.5922
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0234
SAESum of the absolute errors98.7163
A single variable polynomial regression model attempts to put a curve through the Toronto Dominion historical price points. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, this line can be indicated as: Y = a0 + a1*X + a2*X2 + a3*X3 + ... + am*Xm

Predictive Modules for Toronto Dominion

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Toronto Dominion Bank. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Toronto Dominion's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Toronto Dominion in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
66.0867.6669.24
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
58.0859.6674.48
Details
5 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
48.0051.5056.00
Details
Earnings
Estimates (4)
LowProjected EPSHigh
3.843.883.97
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Toronto Dominion. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Toronto Dominion's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Toronto Dominion's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Toronto Dominion Bank.

Other Forecasting Options for Toronto Dominion

For every potential investor in Toronto, whether a beginner or expert, Toronto Dominion's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Toronto Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Toronto. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Toronto Dominion's price trends.

Toronto Dominion Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Toronto Dominion stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Toronto Dominion could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Toronto Dominion by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
Bank Of AmericaWells FargoAlphabet Cl AAmn Healthcare ServicesTwist Bioscience CorpFreedom Holding CorpKEURIG DR PEPPERGX Nasdaq-100 CoveredFranklin Mutual EuropeanGARDNER DENVER INCUSA Value FactorBetapro Canadian GoldAramark Holdings CorpLong-Term Govt BondLIFE STORAGE INC
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Toronto Dominion Bank Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Toronto Dominion's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Toronto Dominion's current price.

Toronto Dominion Risk Indicators

The analysis of Toronto Dominion's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Toronto Dominion's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Toronto Dominion stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Be your own money manager

Our tools can tell you how much better you can do entering a position in Toronto Dominion without increasing your portfolio risk or giving up expected return. As an individual investor, you need to find a reliable way to track all your investment portfolios. However, your requirements will often be based on how much of the process you decide to do yourself. In addition to allowing all investors analytical transparency into all their portfolios, our tools can evaluate.risk-adjusted returns of your individual positions relative to your overall portfolio.

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Additionally, take a look at Historical Fundamental Analysis of Toronto Dominion to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Toronto Dominion Bank information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Toronto Dominion's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Portfolio Rebalancing module to analyze risk-adjusted returns against different time horizons to find asset-allocation targets.

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When running Toronto Dominion Bank price analysis, check to measure Toronto Dominion's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Toronto Dominion is operating at the current time. Most of Toronto Dominion's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Toronto Dominion's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Toronto Dominion's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Toronto Dominion to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Toronto Dominion's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Toronto Dominion. If investors know Toronto will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Toronto Dominion listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
0.04
Market Capitalization
122.1 B
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
0.038
Return On Assets
0.0085
Return On Equity
0.15
The market value of Toronto Dominion Bank is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Toronto that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Toronto Dominion's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Toronto Dominion's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Toronto Dominion's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Toronto Dominion's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Toronto Dominion's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Toronto Dominion value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Toronto Dominion's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.