TuanChe Stock Forecast - Polynomial Regression

TC
 Stock
  

USD 2.10  0.03  1.41%   

TuanChe Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast TuanChe historical stock prices and determine the direction of TuanChe Limited's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of TuanChe historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Additionally, take a look at Historical Fundamental Analysis of TuanChe to cross-verify your projections.
  
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Most investors in TuanChe cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the TuanChe's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets TuanChe's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
TuanChe polinomial regression implements a single variable polynomial regression model using the daily prices as the independent variable. The coefficients of the regression for TuanChe Limited as well as the accuracy indicators are determined from the period prices.

TuanChe Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 30th of June

Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of TuanChe Limited on the next trading day is expected to be 2.19 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.10, mean absolute percentage error of 0.014798, and the sum of the absolute errors of 6.20. Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict TuanChe Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that TuanChe's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

TuanChe Stock Forecast Pattern

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TuanChe Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting TuanChe's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. TuanChe's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.021 and 7.51, respectively. We have considered TuanChe's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value 2.10
2.19
Expected Value
7.51
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of TuanChe stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent TuanChe stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria113.8973
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.1016
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.046
SAESum of the absolute errors6.1968
A single variable polynomial regression model attempts to put a curve through the TuanChe historical price points. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, this line can be indicated as: Y = a0 + a1*X + a2*X2 + a3*X3 + ... + am*Xm

Predictive Modules for TuanChe

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as TuanChe Limited. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of TuanChe's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of TuanChe in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
0.102.067.34
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
0.061.256.53
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
1.962.232.50
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as TuanChe. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against TuanChe's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, TuanChe's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in TuanChe Limited.

Other Forecasting Options for TuanChe

For every potential investor in TuanChe, whether a beginner or expert, TuanChe's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. TuanChe Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in TuanChe. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying TuanChe's price trends.

View Currently Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with TuanChe stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of TuanChe could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing TuanChe by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.

TuanChe Limited Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of TuanChe's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of TuanChe's current price.

TuanChe Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how TuanChe stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading TuanChe shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying TuanChe stock market strength indicators, traders can identify TuanChe Limited entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

TuanChe Risk Indicators

The analysis of TuanChe's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in TuanChe's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting TuanChe stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

TuanChe Investors Sentiment

The influence of TuanChe's investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in TuanChe. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock markets does not have a solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards TuanChe in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, TuanChe's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from TuanChe options trading.

Current Sentiment - TC

TuanChe Limited Investor Sentiment

Larger part of Macroaxis users are at this time bullish on TuanChe Limited. What is your outlook on investing in TuanChe Limited? Are you bullish or bearish?
Bullish
Bearish
98% Bullish
2% Bearish

Currently Active Assets on Macroaxis

Additionally, take a look at Historical Fundamental Analysis of TuanChe to cross-verify your projections. Note that the TuanChe Limited information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other TuanChe's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Analyst Recommendations module to analyst recommendations and target price estimates broken down by several categories.

Complementary Tools for TuanChe Stock analysis

When running TuanChe Limited price analysis, check to measure TuanChe's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy TuanChe is operating at the current time. Most of TuanChe's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of TuanChe's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move TuanChe's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of TuanChe to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is TuanChe's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of TuanChe. If investors know TuanChe will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about TuanChe listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Market Capitalization
42.2 M
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
-0.5
Return On Assets
-0.17
Return On Equity
-0.42
The market value of TuanChe Limited is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of TuanChe that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of TuanChe's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is TuanChe's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because TuanChe's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect TuanChe's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between TuanChe's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine TuanChe value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, TuanChe's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.