STADION TRILOGY Mutual Fund Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing

STTGX
 Fund
  

USD 10.59  0.05  0.47%   

STADION Mutual Fund Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast STADION TRILOGY historical stock prices and determine the direction of STADION TRILOGY ALTERNATIVE's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of STADION TRILOGY historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Additionally, take a look at Historical Fundamental Analysis of STADION TRILOGY to cross-verify your projections.
  
Most investors in STADION TRILOGY cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the STADION TRILOGY's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets STADION TRILOGY's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
STADION TRILOGY simple exponential smoothing forecast is a very popular model used to produce a smoothed price series. Whereas in simple Moving Average models the past observations for STADION TRILOGY ALTERNATIVE are weighted equally, Exponential Smoothing assigns exponentially decreasing weights as STADION TRILOGY ALTE prices get older.

STADION TRILOGY Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 9th of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of STADION TRILOGY ALTERNATIVE on the next trading day is expected to be 10.59 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.030164, mean absolute percentage error of 0.001646, and the sum of the absolute errors of 1.84.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict STADION Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that STADION TRILOGY's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

STADION TRILOGY Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern

Backtest STADION TRILOGYSTADION TRILOGY Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

STADION TRILOGY Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting STADION TRILOGY's Mutual Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. STADION TRILOGY's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 10.21 and 10.97, respectively. We have considered STADION TRILOGY's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value 10.59
10.59
Expected Value
10.97
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of STADION TRILOGY mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent STADION TRILOGY mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria111.701
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -3.0E-4
MADMean absolute deviation0.0302
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0029
SAESum of the absolute errors1.84
This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting STADION TRILOGY ALTERNATIVE forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent STADION TRILOGY observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for STADION TRILOGY

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as STADION TRILOGY ALTE. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of STADION TRILOGY's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of STADION TRILOGY in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
10.2110.5910.97
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
10.1910.5710.95
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
10.4310.5510.66
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as STADION TRILOGY. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against STADION TRILOGY's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, STADION TRILOGY's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in STADION TRILOGY ALTE.

Other Forecasting Options for STADION TRILOGY

For every potential investor in STADION, whether a beginner or expert, STADION TRILOGY's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. STADION Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in STADION. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying STADION TRILOGY's price trends.

STADION TRILOGY Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with STADION TRILOGY mutual fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of STADION TRILOGY could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing STADION TRILOGY by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
Johnson JohnsonSCOR PKBarloworld ADRAmerican ManganeseBondbloxx ETF TrustAMERICAN FUNDS 2060AMN Healthcare ServicesTwist Bioscience CorpFreedom Holding CorpGlobal X NASDAQFRANKLIN MUTUAL EUROPEANBHP Group LimitedNatural Health TrendIShares MSCI USABetaPro Canadian Gold
 Risk & Return  Correlation

STADION TRILOGY ALTE Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of STADION TRILOGY's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of STADION TRILOGY's current price.

STADION TRILOGY Risk Indicators

The analysis of STADION TRILOGY's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in STADION TRILOGY's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting STADION TRILOGY stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards STADION TRILOGY in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, STADION TRILOGY's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from STADION TRILOGY options trading.

Currently Active Assets on Macroaxis

Additionally, take a look at Historical Fundamental Analysis of STADION TRILOGY to cross-verify your projections. Note that the STADION TRILOGY ALTE information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other STADION TRILOGY's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Portfolio Manager module to state of the art Portfolio Manager to monitor and improve performance of your invested capital.

Complementary Tools for STADION Mutual Fund analysis

When running STADION TRILOGY ALTE price analysis, check to measure STADION TRILOGY's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy STADION TRILOGY is operating at the current time. Most of STADION TRILOGY's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of STADION TRILOGY's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move STADION TRILOGY's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of STADION TRILOGY to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Please note, there is a significant difference between STADION TRILOGY's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine STADION TRILOGY value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, STADION TRILOGY's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.