State Street Mutual Fund Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing

SSAFX
 Fund
  

USD 87.60  1.29  1.49%   

State Mutual Fund Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast State Street historical stock prices and determine the direction of State Street Aggregate's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of State Street historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Additionally, take a look at Historical Fundamental Analysis of State Street to cross-verify your projections.
  
Most investors in State Street cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the State Street's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets State Street's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Double exponential smoothing - also known as Holt exponential smoothing is a refinement of the popular simple exponential smoothing model with an additional trending component. Double exponential smoothing model for State Street works best with periods where there are trends or seasonality.

State Street Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 29th of September

Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of State Street Aggregate on the next trading day is expected to be 86.75 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.36, mean absolute percentage error of 0.25, and the sum of the absolute errors of 21.22.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict State Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that State Street's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

State Street Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern

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State Street Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting State Street's Mutual Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. State Street's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 86.27 and 87.23, respectively. We have considered State Street's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value 87.60
86.75
Expected Value
87.23
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of State Street mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent State Street mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.0409
MADMean absolute deviation0.3597
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0039
SAESum of the absolute errors21.2232
When State Street Aggregate prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any State Street Aggregate trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent State Street observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for State Street

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as State Street Aggregate. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of State Street's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of State Street in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
0.000.000.48
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
0.000.000.48
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
86.8689.7392.59
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as State Street. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against State Street's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, State Street's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in State Street Aggregate.

Other Forecasting Options for State Street

For every potential investor in State, whether a beginner or expert, State Street's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. State Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in State. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying State Street's price trends.

State Street Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with State Street mutual fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of State Street could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing State Street by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
Vanguard Total BondInternational BusinessAmn Healthcare ServicesTwist Bioscience CorpFreedom Holding CorpGx Nasdaq-100 CoveredFranklin Mutual EuropeanNatural Hlth TrdUSA Value FactorBetapro Canadian GoldAramark Holdings CorpLong-Term Govt BondMaiden Holdings NorthSeagate Technology HldgsVistra Energy Corp
 Risk & Return  Correlation

State Street Aggregate Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of State Street's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of State Street's current price.

State Street Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how State Street mutual fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading State Street shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying State Street mutual fund market strength indicators, traders can identify State Street Aggregate entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

State Street Risk Indicators

The analysis of State Street's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in State Street's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting State Street stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Be your own money manager

Our tools can tell you how much better you can do entering a position in State Street without increasing your portfolio risk or giving up the expected return. As an individual investor, you need to find a reliable way to track all your investment portfolios. However, your requirements will often be based on how much of the process you decide to do yourself. In addition to allowing all investors analytical transparency into all their portfolios, our tools can evaluate risk-adjusted returns of your individual positions relative to your overall portfolio.

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Additionally, take a look at Historical Fundamental Analysis of State Street to cross-verify your projections. Note that the State Street Aggregate information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other State Street's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Global Correlations module to find global opportunities by holding instruments from different markets.

Complementary Tools for State Mutual Fund analysis

When running State Street Aggregate price analysis, check to measure State Street's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy State Street is operating at the current time. Most of State Street's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of State Street's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move State Street's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of State Street to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Please note, there is a significant difference between State Street's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine State Street value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, State Street's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.