Simply Good Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

SMPL
 Stock
  

USD 38.68  0.07  0.18%   

Simply Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Simply Good historical stock prices and determine the direction of The Simply Good's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Simply Good historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Simply Good naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm we recommend to always cross-verify it against solid analysis of The Simply Good systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Simply Good fundamentals over time.
Additionally, take a look at Historical Fundamental Analysis of Simply Good to cross-verify your projections.
  
Simply Good Accrued Expenses Turnover is relatively stable at the moment as compared to the past year. The company's current value of Accrued Expenses Turnover is estimated at 35.28. The value of Weighted Average Shares is estimated to pull down to about 94.5 M. The value of Weighted Average Shares Diluted is expected to pull down to about 97.8 M.

Open Interest Agains t 2022-12-16 Simply Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Simply Good's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest Simply Good's options reflect these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short trading strategies Simply Good stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note, to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Simply Good's open interest, investors have to compare it to Simply Good's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Simply Good is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Simply. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Simply Good cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Simply Good's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Simply Good's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for Simply Good is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of The Simply Good value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Simply Good Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 27th of November

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of The Simply Good on the next trading day is expected to be 38.40 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.62, mean absolute percentage error of 0.72, and the sum of the absolute errors of 38.23.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Simply Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Simply Good's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Simply Good Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Simply GoodSimply Good Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Simply Good Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Simply Good's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Simply Good's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 36.02 and 40.77, respectively. We have considered Simply Good's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value 38.68
38.40
Expected Value
40.77
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Simply Good stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Simply Good stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria119.6181
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.6166
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0182
SAESum of the absolute errors38.231
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of The Simply Good. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Simply Good. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Simply Good

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Simply Good. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Simply Good's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Simply Good in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
36.5538.9341.31
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
34.8142.7445.12
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
37.8038.3138.85
Details
7 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
39.0042.5045.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Simply Good. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Simply Good's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Simply Good's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Simply Good.

Other Forecasting Options for Simply Good

For every potential investor in Simply, whether a beginner or expert, Simply Good's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Simply Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Simply. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Simply Good's price trends.

Simply Good Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Simply Good stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Simply Good could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Simply Good by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
Kellogg CompanyGeneral MillsHormel Foods CorpKraft HeinzAmn Healthcare ServicesTwist Bioscience CorpFreedom Holding CorpGx Nasdaq-100 CoveredFranklin Mutual EuropeanBhp BillitonNatural Hlth TrdUSA Value FactorBetapro Canadian GoldAramark Holdings CorpLong-Term Govt Bond
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Simply Good Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Simply Good's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Simply Good's current price.

Simply Good Risk Indicators

The analysis of Simply Good's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Simply Good's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Simply Good stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Simply Good Investors Sentiment

The influence of Simply Good's investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in Simply. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock markets does not have a solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.
Investor biases related to Simply Good's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with investment in Simply. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Simply can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around The Simply Good. Please note that most equiteis that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Simply Good's market sentiment shows the aggregated news analyzed to detect positive and negative mentions from the text and comments. The data is normalized to provide daily scores for Simply Good's and other traded tickers. The bigger the bubble, the more accurate is the estimated score. Higher bars for a given day show more participation in the average Simply Good's news discussions. The higher the estimated score, the more favorable is the investor's outlook on Simply Good.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Simply Good in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Simply Good's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Simply Good options trading.

Currently Active Assets on Macroaxis

Additionally, take a look at Historical Fundamental Analysis of Simply Good to cross-verify your projections. You can also try Options Analysis module to analyze and evaluate options and option chains as a potential hedge for your portfolios.

Complementary Tools for analysis

When running Simply Good price analysis, check to measure Simply Good's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Simply Good is operating at the current time. Most of Simply Good's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Simply Good's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Simply Good's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Simply Good to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Simply Good's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Simply Good. If investors know Simply will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Simply Good listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
0.58
Market Capitalization
3.8 B
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
0.055
Return On Assets
0.0613
Return On Equity
0.0826
The market value of Simply Good is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Simply that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Simply Good's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Simply Good's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Simply Good's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Simply Good's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Simply Good's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Simply Good value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Simply Good's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.