JM Smucker Stock Forecast - Simple Regression

SJM
 Stock
  

USD 151.26  1.79  1.20%   

JM Smucker Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast JM Smucker historical stock prices and determine the direction of JM Smucker's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of JM Smucker historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although JM Smucker naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm we recommend to always cross-verify it against solid analysis of JM Smucker systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of JM Smucker fundamentals over time.
Additionally, take a look at Historical Fundamental Analysis of JM Smucker to cross-verify your projections.
  
JM Smucker Asset Turnover is relatively stable at the moment as compared to the past year. The company's current value of Asset Turnover is estimated at 0.57. JM Smucker Weighted Average Shares is relatively stable at the moment as compared to the past year. The company's current value of Weighted Average Shares is estimated at 121.65 Million. Weighted Average Shares Diluted is expected to hike to about 121.7 M this year, although the value of Issuance Purchase of Equity Shares will most likely fall to (520.6 M).

Open Interest Agains t 2022-12-16 JM Smucker Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast JM Smucker's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest JM Smucker's options reflect these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short trading strategies JM Smucker stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note, to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current JM Smucker's open interest, investors have to compare it to JM Smucker's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of JM Smucker is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in JM Smucker. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in JM Smucker cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the JM Smucker's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets JM Smucker's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Simple Regression model is a single variable regression model that attempts to put a straight line through JM Smucker price points. This line is defined by its gradient or slope, and the point at which it intercepts the x-axis. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, then this line can be represented as: Y = intercept + slope * X.

JM Smucker Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 28th of November

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of JM Smucker on the next trading day is expected to be 149.02 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.14, mean absolute percentage error of 6.73, and the sum of the absolute errors of 130.36.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict JM Smucker Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that JM Smucker's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

JM Smucker Stock Forecast Pattern

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JM Smucker Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting JM Smucker's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. JM Smucker's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 147.87 and 150.17, respectively. We have considered JM Smucker's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value 151.26
147.87
Downside
149.02
Expected Value
150.17
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of JM Smucker stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent JM Smucker stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria120.0167
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation2.1371
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.015
SAESum of the absolute errors130.3624
In general, regression methods applied to historical equity returns or prices series is an area of active research. In recent decades, new methods have been developed for robust regression of price series such as JM Smucker historical returns. These new methods are regression involving correlated responses such as growth curves and different regression methods accommodating various types of missing data.

Predictive Modules for JM Smucker

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as JM Smucker. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of JM Smucker's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of JM Smucker in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
150.27151.42152.57
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
124.54125.69166.39
Details
10 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
130.00139.44146.00
Details
Earnings
Estimates (7)
LowProjected EPSHigh
8.418.598.66
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as JM Smucker. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against JM Smucker's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, JM Smucker's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in JM Smucker.

Other Forecasting Options for JM Smucker

For every potential investor in JM Smucker, whether a beginner or expert, JM Smucker's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. JM Smucker Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in JM Smucker. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying JM Smucker's price trends.

JM Smucker Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with JM Smucker stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of JM Smucker could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing JM Smucker by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
Aramark Holdings CorpHershey Foods CorpAmn Healthcare ServicesTwist Bioscience CorpFreedom Holding CorpGx Nasdaq-100 CoveredFranklin Mutual EuropeanBhp BillitonNatural Hlth TrdUSA Value FactorBetapro Canadian GoldAramark Holdings CorpLong-Term Govt BondSeagate Technology HldgsVistra Energy Corp
 Risk & Return  Correlation

JM Smucker Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of JM Smucker's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of JM Smucker's current price.

JM Smucker Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how JM Smucker stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading JM Smucker shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying JM Smucker stock market strength indicators, traders can identify JM Smucker entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

JM Smucker Risk Indicators

The analysis of JM Smucker's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in JM Smucker's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting JM Smucker stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Be your own money manager

Our tools can tell you how much better you can do entering a position in JM Smucker without increasing your portfolio risk or giving up the expected return. As an individual investor, you need to find a reliable way to track all your investment portfolios. However, your requirements will often be based on how much of the process you decide to do yourself. In addition to allowing all investors analytical transparency into all their portfolios, our tools can evaluate risk-adjusted returns of your individual positions relative to your overall portfolio.

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Additionally, take a look at Historical Fundamental Analysis of JM Smucker to cross-verify your projections. You can also try Analyst Recommendations module to analyst recommendations and target price estimates broken down by several categories.

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Is JM Smucker's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of JM Smucker. If investors know JM Smucker will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about JM Smucker listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
(0.06) 
Market Capitalization
16.1 B
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
0.076
Return On Assets
0.0413
Return On Equity
0.0694
The market value of JM Smucker is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of JM Smucker that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of JM Smucker's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is JM Smucker's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because JM Smucker's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect JM Smucker's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between JM Smucker's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine JM Smucker value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, JM Smucker's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.