JM Smucker Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

SJM
 Stock
  

USD 154.01  2.49  1.64%   

JM Smucker Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast JM Smucker historical stock prices and determine the direction of JM Smucker's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of JM Smucker historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although JM Smucker naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm we recommend to always cross-verify it against solid analysis of JM Smucker systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of JM Smucker fundamentals over time.
Additionally, take a look at Historical Fundamental Analysis of JM Smucker to cross-verify your projections.
  
JM Smucker Asset Turnover is relatively stable at the moment as compared to the past year. The company's current value of Asset Turnover is estimated at 0.57. JM Smucker Weighted Average Shares is relatively stable at the moment as compared to the past year. The company's current value of Weighted Average Shares is estimated at 121.65 Million. Weighted Average Shares Diluted is expected to hike to about 121.7 M this year, although the value of Issuance Purchase of Equity Shares will most likely fall to (520.6 M).

Open Interest Agains t 2022-12-16 JM Smucker Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast JM Smucker's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest JM Smucker's options reflect these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short trading strategies JM Smucker stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note, to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current JM Smucker's open interest, investors have to compare it to JM Smucker's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of JM Smucker is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in JM Smucker. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in JM Smucker cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the JM Smucker's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets JM Smucker's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for JM Smucker is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of JM Smucker value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

JM Smucker Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 2nd of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of JM Smucker on the next trading day is expected to be 159.93 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.58, mean absolute percentage error of 3.74, and the sum of the absolute errors of 96.45.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict JM Smucker Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that JM Smucker's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

JM Smucker Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest JM SmuckerJM Smucker Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

JM Smucker Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting JM Smucker's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. JM Smucker's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 158.79 and 161.08, respectively. We have considered JM Smucker's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value 154.01
158.79
Downside
159.93
Expected Value
161.08
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of JM Smucker stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent JM Smucker stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria119.4293
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation1.5812
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.011
SAESum of the absolute errors96.4546
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of JM Smucker. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict JM Smucker. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for JM Smucker

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as JM Smucker. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of JM Smucker's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of JM Smucker in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
153.06154.21155.36
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
147.04148.19169.41
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
141.24147.64154.04
Details
10 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
130.00139.44146.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as JM Smucker. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against JM Smucker's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, JM Smucker's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in JM Smucker.

Other Forecasting Options for JM Smucker

For every potential investor in JM Smucker, whether a beginner or expert, JM Smucker's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. JM Smucker Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in JM Smucker. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying JM Smucker's price trends.

JM Smucker Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with JM Smucker stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of JM Smucker could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing JM Smucker by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
3M CompanyGeneral ElectricWalt DisneyCaterpillarVerizon CommunicationsIntelAmerican ExpressAlcoa CorpInternational BusinessAMN Healthcare ServicesTwist Bioscience CorpFreedom Holding CorpGlobal X NASDAQFRANKLIN MUTUAL EUROPEANBHP Group Limited
 Risk & Return  Correlation

JM Smucker Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of JM Smucker's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of JM Smucker's current price.

JM Smucker Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how JM Smucker stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading JM Smucker shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying JM Smucker stock market strength indicators, traders can identify JM Smucker entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

JM Smucker Risk Indicators

The analysis of JM Smucker's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in JM Smucker's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting JM Smucker stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

JM Smucker Investors Sentiment

The influence of JM Smucker's investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in JM Smucker. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock markets does not have a solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.
Investor biases related to JM Smucker's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with investment in JM Smucker. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding JM Smucker can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around JM Smucker. Please note that most equiteis that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
JM Smucker's market sentiment shows the aggregated news analyzed to detect positive and negative mentions from the text and comments. The data is normalized to provide daily scores for JM Smucker's and other traded tickers. The bigger the bubble, the more accurate is the estimated score. Higher bars for a given day show more participation in the average JM Smucker's news discussions. The higher the estimated score, the more favorable is the investor's outlook on JM Smucker.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards JM Smucker in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, JM Smucker's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from JM Smucker options trading.

Currently Active Assets on Macroaxis

Additionally, take a look at Historical Fundamental Analysis of JM Smucker to cross-verify your projections. You can also try Efficient Frontier module to plot and analyze your portfolio and positions against risk-return landscape of the market..

Complementary Tools for analysis

When running JM Smucker price analysis, check to measure JM Smucker's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy JM Smucker is operating at the current time. Most of JM Smucker's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of JM Smucker's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move JM Smucker's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of JM Smucker to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is JM Smucker's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of JM Smucker. If investors know JM Smucker will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about JM Smucker listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
(0.06) 
Market Capitalization
16.2 B
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
0.076
Return On Assets
0.0413
Return On Equity
6.93
The market value of JM Smucker is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of JM Smucker that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of JM Smucker's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is JM Smucker's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because JM Smucker's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect JM Smucker's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between JM Smucker's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine JM Smucker value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, JM Smucker's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.