Shore Bancshares Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

SHBI -  USA Stock  

USD 19.16  0.28  1.44%

Shore Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Shore Bancshares historical stock prices and determine the direction of Shore Bancshares's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Shore Bancshares historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Additionally, take a look at Historical Fundamental Analysis of Shore Bancshares to cross-verify your projections.
  
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Most investors in Shore Bancshares cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Shore Bancshares' time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Shore Bancshares' price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for Shore Bancshares is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Shore Bancshares value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Shore Bancshares Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 21st of May

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Shore Bancshares on the next trading day is expected to be 19.55 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.46, mean absolute percentage error of 0.34, and the sum of the absolute errors of 237.32. Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Shore Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Shore Bancshares' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Shore Bancshares Stock Forecast Pattern

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Shore Bancshares Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Shore Bancshares' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Shore Bancshares' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 17.28 and 21.81, respectively. We have considered Shore Bancshares' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value 19.16
19.55
Expected Value
21.81
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Shore Bancshares stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Shore Bancshares stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria955.11
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.459
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0329
SAESum of the absolute errors237.319
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Shore Bancshares. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Shore Bancshares. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Shore Bancshares

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Shore Bancshares. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Shore Bancshares' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Shore Bancshares in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
18.1119.1720.23
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
17.2420.3121.37
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
18.9719.8620.75
Details
2 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
20.0021.0022.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Shore Bancshares. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Shore Bancshares' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Shore Bancshares' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Shore Bancshares.

Other Forecasting Options for Shore Bancshares

For every potential investor in Shore, whether a beginner or expert, Shore Bancshares' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Shore Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Shore. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Shore Bancshares' price trends.

View Currently Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Shore Bancshares stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Shore Bancshares could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Shore Bancshares by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.

Shore Bancshares Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Shore Bancshares' price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Shore Bancshares' current price.

Shore Bancshares Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Shore Bancshares stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Shore Bancshares shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Shore Bancshares stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Shore Bancshares entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Shore Bancshares Risk Indicators

The analysis of Shore Bancshares' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Shore Bancshares' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Shore Bancshares stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Shore Bancshares Investors Sentiment

The influence of Shore Bancshares' investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in Shore. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock markets does not have a solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Shore Bancshares in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Shore Bancshares' short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Shore Bancshares options trading.

Current Sentiment - SHBI

Shore Bancshares Investor Sentiment

Most of Macroaxis users are at this time bullish on Shore Bancshares. What is your outlook on investing in Shore Bancshares? Are you bullish or bearish?
Bullish
Bearish
98% Bullish
2% Bearish
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Additionally, take a look at Historical Fundamental Analysis of Shore Bancshares to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Shore Bancshares information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Shore Bancshares' statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Portfolio Anywhere module to track or share privately all of your investments from the convenience of any device.

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Is Shore Bancshares' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Shore Bancshares. If investors know Shore will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Shore Bancshares listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Shore Bancshares is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Shore that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Shore Bancshares' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Shore Bancshares' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Shore Bancshares' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Shore Bancshares' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Shore Bancshares' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Shore Bancshares value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Shore Bancshares' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.