Science Applications Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

SAIC
 Stock
  

USD 92.77  1.20  1.28%   

Science Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Science Applications historical stock prices and determine the direction of Science Applications International's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Science Applications historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Science Applications naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm we recommend to always cross-verify it against solid analysis of Science Applications International systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Science Applications fundamentals over time.
Additionally, take a look at Historical Fundamental Analysis of Science Applications to cross-verify your projections.
  
Science Applications PPandE Turnover is projected to increase significantly based on the last few years of reporting. The past year's PPandE Turnover was at 71.29. The current year Accounts Payable Turnover is expected to grow to 13.77, whereas Receivables Turnover is forecasted to decline to 7.08. . The current year Weighted Average Shares is expected to grow to about 61.1 M. The current year Weighted Average Shares Diluted is expected to grow to about 61.6 M.

Open Interest Agains t 2022-08-19 Science Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Science Applications' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest Science Applications' options reflect these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short trading strategies Science Applications stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note, to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Science Applications' open interest, investors have to compare it to Science Applications' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Science Applications is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Science. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Science Applications cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Science Applications' time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Science Applications' price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for Science Applications is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Science Applications International value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Science Applications Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 12th of August 2022

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Science Applications International on the next trading day is expected to be 91.15 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.48, mean absolute percentage error of 4.06, and the sum of the absolute errors of 91.92.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Science Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Science Applications' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Science Applications Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Science ApplicationsScience Applications Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Science Applications Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Science Applications' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Science Applications' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 89.28 and 93.01, respectively. We have considered Science Applications' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value 92.77
91.15
Expected Value
93.01
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Science Applications stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Science Applications stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria121.3499
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation1.4826
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0165
SAESum of the absolute errors91.9189
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Science Applications International. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Science Applications. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Science Applications

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Science Applications. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Science Applications' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Science Applications in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
91.2893.1595.02
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
83.49105.39107.26
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
90.1293.4596.78
Details
10 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
93.00103.56111.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Science Applications. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Science Applications' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Science Applications' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Science Applications.

Other Forecasting Options for Science Applications

For every potential investor in Science, whether a beginner or expert, Science Applications' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Science Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Science. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Science Applications' price trends.

Science Applications Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Science Applications stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Science Applications could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Science Applications by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
PaychexPaypal HoldingsVisa IncVerisk AnalyticsUnited Parcel ServiceAllovirApple IncBlock IncSalesforceAmn Healthcare ServicesTwist Bioscience CorpFreedom Holding CorpKEURIG DR PEPPERGX Nasdaq-100 CoveredFranklin Mutual European
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Science Applications Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Science Applications' price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Science Applications' current price.

Science Applications Risk Indicators

The analysis of Science Applications' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Science Applications' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Science Applications stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Science Applications Investors Sentiment

The influence of Science Applications' investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in Science. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock markets does not have a solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.
Investor biases related to Science Applications' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with investment in Science. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Science can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Science Applications International. Please note that most equiteis that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Science Applications' market sentiment shows the aggregated news analyzed to detect positive and negative mentions from the text and comments. The data is normalized to provide daily scores for Science Applications' and other traded tickers. The bigger the bubble, the more accurate is the estimated score. Higher bars for a given day show more participation in the average Science Applications' news discussions. The higher the estimate score, the more favorable is the investor's outlook on Science Applications.

Science Applications Implied Volatility

    
  3.35  
Science Applications' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Science Applications International stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Science Applications' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Science Applications stock will not fluctuate a lot when Science Applications' options are near their expiration.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Science Applications in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Science Applications' short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Science Applications options trading.

Currently Active Assets on Macroaxis

Additionally, take a look at Historical Fundamental Analysis of Science Applications to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Science Applications information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Science Applications' statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Price Transformation module to use Price Transformation models to analyze depth of different equity instruments across global markets.

Complementary Tools for Science Stock analysis

When running Science Applications price analysis, check to measure Science Applications' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Science Applications is operating at the current time. Most of Science Applications' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Science Applications' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Science Applications' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Science Applications to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Science Applications' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Science Applications. If investors know Science will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Science Applications listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
-0.065
Market Capitalization
5.2 B
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
0.063
Return On Assets
0.0557
Return On Equity
0.17
The market value of Science Applications is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Science that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Science Applications' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Science Applications' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Science Applications' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Science Applications' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Science Applications' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Science Applications value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Science Applications' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.