VanEck Retail Etf Forecast - Naive Prediction

RTH
 Etf
  

USD 171.72  0.43  0.25%   

VanEck Etf Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast VanEck Retail historical stock prices and determine the direction of VanEck Retail ETF's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of VanEck Retail historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Additionally, take a look at Historical Fundamental Analysis of VanEck Retail to cross-verify your projections.
  

Open Interest Agains t 2022-12-16 VanEck Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast VanEck Retail's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest VanEck Retail's options reflect these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short trading strategies VanEck Retail stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note, to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current VanEck Retail's open interest, investors have to compare it to VanEck Retail's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of VanEck Retail is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in VanEck. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in VanEck Retail cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the VanEck Retail's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets VanEck Retail's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for VanEck Retail is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of VanEck Retail ETF value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

VanEck Retail Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 6th of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of VanEck Retail ETF on the next trading day is expected to be 171.54 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.08, mean absolute percentage error of 6.85, and the sum of the absolute errors of 127.16.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict VanEck Etf prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that VanEck Retail's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

VanEck Retail Etf Forecast Pattern

Backtest VanEck RetailVanEck Retail Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

VanEck Retail Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting VanEck Retail's Etf value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. VanEck Retail's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 169.90 and 173.18, respectively. We have considered VanEck Retail's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value 171.72
169.90
Downside
171.54
Expected Value
173.18
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of VanEck Retail etf data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent VanEck Retail etf, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria120.0341
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation2.0847
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0129
SAESum of the absolute errors127.164
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of VanEck Retail ETF. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict VanEck Retail. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for VanEck Retail

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as VanEck Retail ETF. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of VanEck Retail's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of VanEck Retail in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
170.08171.72173.36
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
161.49163.13188.89
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as VanEck Retail. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against VanEck Retail's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, VanEck Retail's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in VanEck Retail ETF.

Other Forecasting Options for VanEck Retail

For every potential investor in VanEck, whether a beginner or expert, VanEck Retail's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. VanEck Etf price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in VanEck. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying VanEck Retail's price trends.

VanEck Retail Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with VanEck Retail etf to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of VanEck Retail could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing VanEck Retail by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
Invesco SP MidCapMitsubishi UFJ FinancialFT Cboe VestVANGUARD SMALL-CAP GROWTHAMN Healthcare ServicesTwist Bioscience CorpFreedom Holding CorpGlobal X NASDAQFRANKLIN MUTUAL EUROPEANBHP Group LimitedNatural Health TrendIShares MSCI USABetaPro Canadian GoldAramark HoldingsVanguard Long-Term
 Risk & Return  Correlation

VanEck Retail ETF Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of VanEck Retail's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of VanEck Retail's current price.

VanEck Retail Risk Indicators

The analysis of VanEck Retail's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in VanEck Retail's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting VanEck Retail stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards VanEck Retail in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, VanEck Retail's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from VanEck Retail options trading.

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Additionally, take a look at Historical Fundamental Analysis of VanEck Retail to cross-verify your projections. You can also try Analyst Recommendations module to analyst recommendations and target price estimates broken down by several categories.

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When running VanEck Retail ETF price analysis, check to measure VanEck Retail's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy VanEck Retail is operating at the current time. Most of VanEck Retail's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of VanEck Retail's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move VanEck Retail's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of VanEck Retail to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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The market value of VanEck Retail ETF is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of VanEck that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of VanEck Retail's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is VanEck Retail's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because VanEck Retail's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect VanEck Retail's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between VanEck Retail's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine VanEck Retail value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, VanEck Retail's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.