RBC Bearings Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

ROLL
 Stock
  

USD 264.87  8.09  3.15%   

RBC Bearings Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast RBC Bearings historical stock prices and determine the direction of RBC Bearings Incorp's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of RBC Bearings historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although RBC Bearings naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm we recommend to always cross-verify it against solid analysis of RBC Bearings Incorp systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of RBC Bearings fundamentals over time.
Additionally, take a look at Historical Fundamental Analysis of RBC Bearings to cross-verify your projections.
  
PPandE Turnover is expected to hike to 3.57 this year. Receivables Turnover is expected to hike to 5.92 this year. The value of Weighted Average Shares is estimated to pull down to about 26.8 M. The value of Weighted Average Shares Diluted is expected to pull down to about 27.1 M.

Open Interest Agains t 2022-08-19 RBC Bearings Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast RBC Bearings' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest RBC Bearings' options reflect these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short trading strategies RBC Bearings stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note, to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current RBC Bearings' open interest, investors have to compare it to RBC Bearings' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of RBC Bearings is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in RBC Bearings. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in RBC Bearings cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the RBC Bearings' time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets RBC Bearings' price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for RBC Bearings is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of RBC Bearings Incorp value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

RBC Bearings Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 13th of August 2022

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of RBC Bearings Incorp on the next trading day is expected to be 259.28 with a mean absolute deviation of 5.47, mean absolute percentage error of 46.89, and the sum of the absolute errors of 333.62.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict RBC Bearings Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that RBC Bearings' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

RBC Bearings Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest RBC BearingsRBC Bearings Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

RBC Bearings Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting RBC Bearings' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. RBC Bearings' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 256.78 and 261.79, respectively. We have considered RBC Bearings' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value 264.87
256.78
Downside
259.28
Expected Value
261.79
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of RBC Bearings stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent RBC Bearings stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria121.9582
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation5.4692
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0286
SAESum of the absolute errors333.6213
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of RBC Bearings Incorp. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict RBC Bearings. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for RBC Bearings

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as RBC Bearings Incorp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of RBC Bearings' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of RBC Bearings in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
257.90260.41262.92
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
258.35260.86263.37
Details
5 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
220.00244.33263.00
Details
Earnings
Estimates (3)
LowProjected EPSHigh
3.354.014.60
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as RBC Bearings. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against RBC Bearings' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, RBC Bearings' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in RBC Bearings Incorp.

Other Forecasting Options for RBC Bearings

For every potential investor in RBC Bearings, whether a beginner or expert, RBC Bearings' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. RBC Bearings Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in RBC Bearings. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying RBC Bearings' price trends.

RBC Bearings Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with RBC Bearings stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of RBC Bearings could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing RBC Bearings by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
Stanley Black DeckerSnap-OnBrookfield Asset ManAmn Healthcare ServicesTwist Bioscience CorpFreedom Holding CorpKEURIG DR PEPPERGX Nasdaq-100 CoveredFranklin Mutual EuropeanGARDNER DENVER INCUSA Value FactorBetapro Canadian GoldAramark Holdings CorpLong-Term Govt BondLIFE STORAGE INC
 Risk & Return  Correlation

RBC Bearings Incorp Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of RBC Bearings' price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of RBC Bearings' current price.

RBC Bearings Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how RBC Bearings stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading RBC Bearings shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying RBC Bearings stock market strength indicators, traders can identify RBC Bearings Incorp entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

RBC Bearings Risk Indicators

The analysis of RBC Bearings' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in RBC Bearings' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting RBC Bearings stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

RBC Bearings Investors Sentiment

The influence of RBC Bearings' investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in RBC Bearings. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock markets does not have a solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.
Investor biases related to RBC Bearings' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with investment in RBC Bearings. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding RBC Bearings can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around RBC Bearings Incorp. Please note that most equiteis that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
RBC Bearings' market sentiment shows the aggregated news analyzed to detect positive and negative mentions from the text and comments. The data is normalized to provide daily scores for RBC Bearings' and other traded tickers. The bigger the bubble, the more accurate is the estimated score. Higher bars for a given day show more participation in the average RBC Bearings' news discussions. The higher the estimate score, the more favorable is the investor's outlook on RBC Bearings.

RBC Bearings Implied Volatility

    
  41.67  
RBC Bearings' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of RBC Bearings Incorp stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if RBC Bearings' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that RBC Bearings stock will not fluctuate a lot when RBC Bearings' options are near their expiration.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards RBC Bearings in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, RBC Bearings' short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from RBC Bearings options trading.

Currently Active Assets on Macroaxis

Additionally, take a look at Historical Fundamental Analysis of RBC Bearings to cross-verify your projections. Note that the RBC Bearings Incorp information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other RBC Bearings' statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Transaction History module to view history of all your transactions and understand their impact on performance.

Complementary Tools for RBC Bearings Stock analysis

When running RBC Bearings Incorp price analysis, check to measure RBC Bearings' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy RBC Bearings is operating at the current time. Most of RBC Bearings' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of RBC Bearings' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move RBC Bearings' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of RBC Bearings to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is RBC Bearings' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of RBC Bearings. If investors know RBC Bearings will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about RBC Bearings listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
0.15
Market Capitalization
7.3 B
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
1.27
Return On Assets
0.0428
Return On Equity
0.0427
The market value of RBC Bearings Incorp is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of RBC Bearings that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of RBC Bearings' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is RBC Bearings' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because RBC Bearings' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect RBC Bearings' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between RBC Bearings' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine RBC Bearings value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, RBC Bearings' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.