Capital Income Mutual Fund Forecast - Naive Prediction

RIREX
 Fund
  

USD 64.01  0.19  0.30%   

Capital Mutual Fund Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Capital Income historical stock prices and determine the direction of Capital Income Builder's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Capital Income historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Additionally, take a look at Historical Fundamental Analysis of Capital Income to cross-verify your projections.
  
Most investors in Capital Income cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Capital Income's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Capital Income's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for Capital Income is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Capital Income Builder value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Capital Income Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 27th of November

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Capital Income Builder on the next trading day is expected to be 64.66 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.49, mean absolute percentage error of 0.39, and the sum of the absolute errors of 30.08.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Capital Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Capital Income's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Capital Income Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern

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Capital Income Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Capital Income's Mutual Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Capital Income's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 63.62 and 65.71, respectively. We have considered Capital Income's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value 64.01
64.66
Expected Value
65.71
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Capital Income mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Capital Income mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria119.015
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.4851
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0081
SAESum of the absolute errors30.0753
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Capital Income Builder. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Capital Income. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Capital Income

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Capital Income Builder. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Capital Income's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Capital Income in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
62.9263.9665.00
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
62.1563.1964.23
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
62.5463.2864.04
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Capital Income. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Capital Income's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Capital Income's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Capital Income Builder.

Other Forecasting Options for Capital Income

For every potential investor in Capital, whether a beginner or expert, Capital Income's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Capital Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Capital. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Capital Income's price trends.

Capital Income Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Capital Income mutual fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Capital Income could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Capital Income by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
Capital Income BuilderAmn Healthcare ServicesTwist Bioscience CorpFreedom Holding CorpGx Nasdaq-100 CoveredFranklin Mutual EuropeanBhp BillitonNatural Hlth TrdUSA Value FactorBetapro Canadian GoldAramark Holdings CorpLong-Term Govt BondSeagate Technology HldgsVistra Energy CorpExxon Mobil Corp
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Capital Income Builder Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Capital Income's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Capital Income's current price.

Capital Income Risk Indicators

The analysis of Capital Income's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Capital Income's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Capital Income stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Be your own money manager

Our tools can tell you how much better you can do entering a position in Capital Income without increasing your portfolio risk or giving up the expected return. As an individual investor, you need to find a reliable way to track all your investment portfolios. However, your requirements will often be based on how much of the process you decide to do yourself. In addition to allowing all investors analytical transparency into all their portfolios, our tools can evaluate risk-adjusted returns of your individual positions relative to your overall portfolio.

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Additionally, take a look at Historical Fundamental Analysis of Capital Income to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Capital Income Builder information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Capital Income's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Alpha Finder module to use alpha and beta coefficients to find investment opportunities after accounting for the risk.

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When running Capital Income Builder price analysis, check to measure Capital Income's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Capital Income is operating at the current time. Most of Capital Income's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Capital Income's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Capital Income's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Capital Income to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Please note, there is a significant difference between Capital Income's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Capital Income value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Capital Income's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.