Repligen Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

RGEN
 Stock
  

USD 173.87  3.54  2.08%   

Repligen Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Repligen historical stock prices and determine the direction of Repligen's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Repligen historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Repligen naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm we recommend to always cross-verify it against solid analysis of Repligen systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Repligen fundamentals over time.
Additionally, take a look at Historical Fundamental Analysis of Repligen to cross-verify your projections.
  
Repligen Inventory Turnover is quite stable at the moment as compared to the past year. The company's current value of Inventory Turnover is estimated at 2.34. Cash and Equivalents Turnover is expected to rise to 1.40 this year, although the value of PPandE Turnover will most likely fall to 6.38. . The value of Weighted Average Shares is estimated to slide to about 44.9 M. The value of Weighted Average Shares Diluted is expected to slide to about 46.4 M.
Most investors in Repligen cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Repligen's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Repligen's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for Repligen is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Repligen value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Repligen Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 9th of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Repligen on the next trading day is expected to be 158.37 with a mean absolute deviation of 9.63, mean absolute percentage error of 144.37, and the sum of the absolute errors of 587.72.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Repligen Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Repligen's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Repligen Stock Forecast Pattern

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Repligen Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Repligen's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Repligen's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 154.20 and 162.55, respectively. We have considered Repligen's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value 173.87
154.20
Downside
158.37
Expected Value
162.55
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Repligen stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Repligen stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria123.0829
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation9.6347
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0508
SAESum of the absolute errors587.7172
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Repligen. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Repligen. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Repligen

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Repligen. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Repligen's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Repligen in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
165.33169.51191.47
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
156.65203.61207.79
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
157.46179.66201.86
Details
10 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
240.00310.33368.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Repligen. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Repligen's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Repligen's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Repligen.

Other Forecasting Options for Repligen

For every potential investor in Repligen, whether a beginner or expert, Repligen's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Repligen Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Repligen. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Repligen's price trends.

Repligen Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Repligen stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Repligen could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Repligen by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
Imperial Brands PLCSwedish Match AbVapor GroupMinercoJapan Tobacco ADRVector GroupJapan TobaccoBritish American TobaccoAMN Healthcare ServicesTwist Bioscience CorpFreedom Holding CorpGlobal X NASDAQFRANKLIN MUTUAL EUROPEANBHP Group LimitedNatural Health Trend
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Repligen Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Repligen's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Repligen's current price.

Repligen Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Repligen stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Repligen shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Repligen stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Repligen entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Repligen Risk Indicators

The analysis of Repligen's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Repligen's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Repligen stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Be your own money manager

Our tools can tell you how much better you can do entering a position in Repligen without increasing your portfolio risk or giving up the expected return. As an individual investor, you need to find a reliable way to track all your investment portfolios. However, your requirements will often be based on how much of the process you decide to do yourself. In addition to allowing all investors analytical transparency into all their portfolios, our tools can evaluate risk-adjusted returns of your individual positions relative to your overall portfolio.

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Additionally, take a look at Historical Fundamental Analysis of Repligen to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Repligen information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Repligen's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Portfolio Center module to all portfolio management and optimization tools to improve performance of your portfolios.

Complementary Tools for Repligen Stock analysis

When running Repligen price analysis, check to measure Repligen's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Repligen is operating at the current time. Most of Repligen's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Repligen's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Repligen's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Repligen to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Repligen's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Repligen. If investors know Repligen will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Repligen listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Repligen is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Repligen that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Repligen's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Repligen's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Repligen's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Repligen's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Repligen's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Repligen value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Repligen's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.