American Fds Mutual Fund Forecast - Naive Prediction

RAJTX
 Fund
  

USD 10.95  0.14  1.26%   

American Mutual Fund Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast American Fds historical stock prices and determine the direction of American Fds 2015's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of American Fds historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Additionally, take a look at Historical Fundamental Analysis of American Fds to cross-verify your projections.
  
Most investors in American Fds cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the American Fds' time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets American Fds' price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for American Fds is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of American Fds 2015 value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

American Fds Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 28th of September

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of American Fds 2015 on the next trading day is expected to be 10.89 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.05, mean absolute percentage error of 0.004799, and the sum of the absolute errors of 3.30.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict American Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that American Fds' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

American Fds Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern

Backtest American FdsAmerican Fds Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

American Fds Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting American Fds' Mutual Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. American Fds' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 10.32 and 11.46, respectively. We have considered American Fds' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value 10.95
10.89
Expected Value
11.46
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of American Fds mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent American Fds mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria112.7711
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.0541
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0047
SAESum of the absolute errors3.3031
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of American Fds 2015. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict American Fds. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for American Fds

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as American Fds 2015. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of American Fds' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of American Fds in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
10.3810.9511.52
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
10.5011.0711.64
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
10.8611.0011.06
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as American Fds. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against American Fds' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, American Fds' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in American Fds 2015.

Other Forecasting Options for American Fds

For every potential investor in American, whether a beginner or expert, American Fds' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. American Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in American. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying American Fds' price trends.

American Fds Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with American Fds mutual fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of American Fds could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing American Fds by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
Dupont DenemoursAmn Healthcare ServicesTwist Bioscience CorpFreedom Holding CorpGx Nasdaq-100 CoveredFranklin Mutual EuropeanNatural Hlth TrdUSA Value FactorBetapro Canadian GoldAramark Holdings CorpLong-Term Govt BondMaiden Holdings NorthSeagate Technology HldgsVistra Energy CorpExxon Mobil Corp
 Risk & Return  Correlation

American Fds 2015 Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of American Fds' price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of American Fds' current price.

American Fds Risk Indicators

The analysis of American Fds' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in American Fds' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting American Fds stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards American Fds in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, American Fds' short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from American Fds options trading.

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Additionally, take a look at Historical Fundamental Analysis of American Fds to cross-verify your projections. You can also try Fundamental Analysis module to view fundamental data based on most recent published financial statements.

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When running American Fds 2015 price analysis, check to measure American Fds' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy American Fds is operating at the current time. Most of American Fds' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of American Fds' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move American Fds' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of American Fds to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Please note, there is a significant difference between American Fds' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine American Fds value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, American Fds' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.