Qualys Stock Forecast - 4 Period Moving Average

QLYS
 Stock
  

USD 139.39  2.78  1.96%   

Qualys Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Qualys historical stock prices and determine the direction of Qualys Inc's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Qualys historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Please see Historical Fundamental Analysis of Qualys to cross-verify your projections.
  

Open Interest Agains t 2022-10-21 Qualys Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Qualys' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest Qualys' options reflect these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short trading strategies Qualys stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note, to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Qualys' open interest, investors have to compare it to Qualys' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Qualys is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Qualys. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Qualys cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Qualys' time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Qualys' price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A four-period moving average forecast model for Qualys Inc is based on an artificially constructed daily price series in which the value for a given day is replaced by the mean of that value and the values for four preceding and succeeding time periods. This model is best suited to forecast equities with high volatility.

Qualys 4 Period Moving Average Price Forecast For the 1st of October

Given 90 days horizon, the 4 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Qualys Inc on the next trading day is expected to be 141.90 with a mean absolute deviation of 4.29, mean absolute percentage error of 30.24, and the sum of the absolute errors of 244.38.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Qualys Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Qualys' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Qualys Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest QualysQualys Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Qualys Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Qualys' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Qualys' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 139.32 and 144.47, respectively. We have considered Qualys' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value 139.39
139.32
Downside
141.90
Expected Value
144.47
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the 4 Period Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Qualys stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Qualys stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria114.1681
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.5683
MADMean absolute deviation4.2874
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0303
SAESum of the absolute errors244.38
The four period moving average method has an advantage over other forecasting models in that it does smooth out peaks and troughs in a set of daily price observations of Qualys. However, it also has several disadvantages. In particular this model does not produce an actual prediction equation for Qualys Inc and therefore, it cannot be a useful forecasting tool for medium or long range price predictions

Predictive Modules for Qualys

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Qualys Inc. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Qualys' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Qualys in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
141.04143.60146.16
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
128.13149.51152.07
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
140.58146.19151.79
Details
9 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
105.00132.38175.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Qualys. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Qualys' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Qualys' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Qualys Inc.

Other Forecasting Options for Qualys

For every potential investor in Qualys, whether a beginner or expert, Qualys' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Qualys Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Qualys. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Qualys' price trends.

Qualys Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Qualys stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Qualys could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Qualys by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
Aluminum CorpALUMINA LIMITEDNORSK HYDRO ASAAlcoa CorpAluminumMansfelder MetalsAmn Healthcare ServicesTwist Bioscience CorpFreedom Holding CorpGx Nasdaq-100 CoveredFranklin Mutual EuropeanNatural Hlth TrdUSA Value FactorBetapro Canadian GoldAramark Holdings Corp
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Qualys Inc Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Qualys' price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Qualys' current price.

Qualys Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Qualys stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Qualys shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Qualys stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Qualys Inc entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Qualys Risk Indicators

The analysis of Qualys' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Qualys' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Qualys stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Qualys in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Qualys' short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Qualys options trading.

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Please see Historical Fundamental Analysis of Qualys to cross-verify your projections. You can also try Price Ceiling Movement module to calculate and plot Price Ceiling Movement for different equity instruments.

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Is Qualys' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Qualys. If investors know Qualys will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Qualys listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Qualys Inc is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Qualys that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Qualys' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Qualys' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Qualys' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Qualys' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Qualys' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Qualys value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Qualys' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.