Quality Houses Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

QHPF
 Stock
  

THB 9.40  0.05  0.53%   

Quality Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Quality Houses historical stock prices and determine the direction of Quality Houses Property's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Quality Houses historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Please see Historical Fundamental Analysis of Quality Houses to cross-verify your projections.
  
Most investors in Quality Houses cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Quality Houses' time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Quality Houses' price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for Quality Houses is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Quality Houses Property value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Quality Houses Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 7th of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Quality Houses Property on the next trading day is expected to be 9.41 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.05, mean absolute percentage error of 0.004815, and the sum of the absolute errors of 3.09.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Quality Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Quality Houses' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Quality Houses Stock Forecast Pattern

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Quality Houses Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Quality Houses' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Quality Houses' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 8.63 and 10.19, respectively. We have considered Quality Houses' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value 9.40
9.41
Expected Value
10.19
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Quality Houses stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Quality Houses stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria112.7745
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.0507
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0053
SAESum of the absolute errors3.0931
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Quality Houses Property. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Quality Houses. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Quality Houses

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Quality Houses Property. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Quality Houses' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Quality Houses in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
8.629.4010.18
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
8.589.3610.14
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
9.319.469.60
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Quality Houses. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Quality Houses' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Quality Houses' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Quality Houses Property.

Other Forecasting Options for Quality Houses

For every potential investor in Quality, whether a beginner or expert, Quality Houses' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Quality Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Quality. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Quality Houses' price trends.

Quality Houses Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Quality Houses stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Quality Houses could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Quality Houses by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
Sea Oil PublicDelta Paint PCLThai Group HoldingsYong Concrete PCLAMN Healthcare ServicesTwist Bioscience CorpFreedom Holding CorpGlobal X NASDAQFRANKLIN MUTUAL EUROPEANBHP Group LimitedNatural Health TrendIShares MSCI USABetaPro Canadian GoldAramark HoldingsVanguard Long-Term
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Quality Houses Property Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Quality Houses' price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Quality Houses' current price.

Quality Houses Risk Indicators

The analysis of Quality Houses' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Quality Houses' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Quality Houses stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Be your own money manager

Our tools can tell you how much better you can do entering a position in Quality Houses without increasing your portfolio risk or giving up the expected return. As an individual investor, you need to find a reliable way to track all your investment portfolios. However, your requirements will often be based on how much of the process you decide to do yourself. In addition to allowing all investors analytical transparency into all their portfolios, our tools can evaluate risk-adjusted returns of your individual positions relative to your overall portfolio.

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Please see Historical Fundamental Analysis of Quality Houses to cross-verify your projections. You can also try Portfolio Backtesting module to avoid under-diversification and over-optimization by backtesting your portfolios.

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Please note, there is a significant difference between Quality Houses' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Quality Houses value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Quality Houses' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.