Federated Hermes Mutual Fund Forecast - Polynomial Regression

QAMNX
 Fund
  

USD 18.44  0.09  0.49%   

Federated Mutual Fund Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Federated Hermes historical stock prices and determine the direction of Federated Hermes Mdt's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Federated Hermes historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Please see Historical Fundamental Analysis of Federated Hermes to cross-verify your projections.
  
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Most investors in Federated Hermes cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Federated Hermes' time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Federated Hermes' price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Federated Hermes polinomial regression implements a single variable polynomial regression model using the daily prices as the independent variable. The coefficients of the regression for Federated Hermes Mdt as well as the accuracy indicators are determined from the period prices.

Federated Hermes Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 2nd of July

Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Federated Hermes Mdt on the next trading day is expected to be 18.34 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.12, mean absolute percentage error of 0.026683, and the sum of the absolute errors of 7.61. Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Federated Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Federated Hermes' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Federated Hermes Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern

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Federated Hermes Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Federated Hermes' Mutual Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Federated Hermes' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 17.95 and 18.73, respectively. We have considered Federated Hermes' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value 18.44
18.34
Expected Value
18.73
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Federated Hermes mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Federated Hermes mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria114.4868
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.1247
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0069
SAESum of the absolute errors7.6055
A single variable polynomial regression model attempts to put a curve through the Federated Hermes historical price points. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, this line can be indicated as: Y = a0 + a1*X + a2*X2 + a3*X3 + ... + am*Xm

Predictive Modules for Federated Hermes

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Federated Hermes Mdt. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Federated Hermes' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Federated Hermes in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
18.0518.4418.83
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
17.9618.3518.74
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
18.4418.5718.69
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Federated Hermes. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Federated Hermes' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Federated Hermes' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Federated Hermes Mdt.

Other Forecasting Options for Federated Hermes

For every potential investor in Federated, whether a beginner or expert, Federated Hermes' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Federated Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Federated. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Federated Hermes' price trends.

View Currently Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Federated Hermes mutual fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Federated Hermes could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Federated Hermes by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.

Federated Hermes Mdt Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Federated Hermes' price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Federated Hermes' current price.

Federated Hermes Risk Indicators

The analysis of Federated Hermes' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Federated Hermes' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Federated Hermes stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Be your own money manager

Our tools can tell you how much better you can do entering a position in Federated Hermes without increasing your portfolio risk or giving up expected return. As an individual investor, you need to find a reliable way to track all your investment portfolios. However, your requirements will often be based on how much of the process you decide to do yourself. In addition to allowing all investors analytical transparency into all their portfolios, our tools can evaluate.risk-adjusted returns of your individual positions relative to your overall portfolio.

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Please see Historical Fundamental Analysis of Federated Hermes to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Federated Hermes Mdt information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Federated Hermes' statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Idea Analyzer module to analyze all characteristics, volatility and risk-adjusted return of Macroaxis ideas.

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When running Federated Hermes Mdt price analysis, check to measure Federated Hermes' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Federated Hermes is operating at the current time. Most of Federated Hermes' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Federated Hermes' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Federated Hermes' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Federated Hermes to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Please note, there is a significant difference between Federated Hermes' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Federated Hermes value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Federated Hermes' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.