Quantified Alternative Mutual Fund Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing

QALAX
 Fund
  

USD 8.93  0.07  0.79%   

Quantified Mutual Fund Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Quantified Alternative historical stock prices and determine the direction of Quantified Alternative Investment's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Quantified Alternative historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Please see Historical Fundamental Analysis of Quantified Alternative to cross-verify your projections.
  
Most investors in Quantified Alternative cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Quantified Alternative's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Quantified Alternative's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Double exponential smoothing - also known as Holt exponential smoothing is a refinement of the popular simple exponential smoothing model with an additional trending component. Double exponential smoothing model for Quantified Alternative works best with periods where there are trends or seasonality.

Quantified Alternative Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 2nd of October

Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Quantified Alternative Investment on the next trading day is expected to be 8.84 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.034964, mean absolute percentage error of 0.00229, and the sum of the absolute errors of 2.06.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Quantified Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Quantified Alternative's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Quantified Alternative Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern

Backtest Quantified AlternativeQuantified Alternative Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Quantified Alternative Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Quantified Alternative's Mutual Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Quantified Alternative's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 8.33 and 9.34, respectively. We have considered Quantified Alternative's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value 8.93
8.84
Expected Value
9.34
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Quantified Alternative mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Quantified Alternative mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.0089
MADMean absolute deviation0.035
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0038
SAESum of the absolute errors2.0629
When Quantified Alternative Investment prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any Quantified Alternative Investment trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent Quantified Alternative observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for Quantified Alternative

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Quantified Alternative. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Quantified Alternative's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Quantified Alternative in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
8.428.939.44
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
8.488.999.50
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
8.869.259.63
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Quantified Alternative. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Quantified Alternative's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Quantified Alternative's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Quantified Alternative.

Other Forecasting Options for Quantified Alternative

For every potential investor in Quantified, whether a beginner or expert, Quantified Alternative's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Quantified Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Quantified. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Quantified Alternative's price trends.

Quantified Alternative Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Quantified Alternative mutual fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Quantified Alternative could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Quantified Alternative by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
Chevron CorpAmn Healthcare ServicesTwist Bioscience CorpFreedom Holding CorpGx Nasdaq-100 CoveredFranklin Mutual EuropeanNatural Hlth TrdUSA Value FactorBetapro Canadian GoldAramark Holdings CorpLong-Term Govt BondMaiden Holdings NorthSeagate Technology HldgsVistra Energy CorpExxon Mobil Corp
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Quantified Alternative Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Quantified Alternative's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Quantified Alternative's current price.

Quantified Alternative Risk Indicators

The analysis of Quantified Alternative's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Quantified Alternative's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Quantified Alternative stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Be your own money manager

Our tools can tell you how much better you can do entering a position in Quantified Alternative without increasing your portfolio risk or giving up the expected return. As an individual investor, you need to find a reliable way to track all your investment portfolios. However, your requirements will often be based on how much of the process you decide to do yourself. In addition to allowing all investors analytical transparency into all their portfolios, our tools can evaluate risk-adjusted returns of your individual positions relative to your overall portfolio.

Did you try this?

Run Performance Analysis Now

   

Performance Analysis

Check effects of mean-variance optimization against your current asset allocation
All  Next Launch Module

Currently Active Assets on Macroaxis

Please see Historical Fundamental Analysis of Quantified Alternative to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Quantified Alternative information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Quantified Alternative's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Bond Analysis module to evaluate and analyze corporate bonds as a potential investment for your portfolios..

Complementary Tools for Quantified Mutual Fund analysis

When running Quantified Alternative price analysis, check to measure Quantified Alternative's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Quantified Alternative is operating at the current time. Most of Quantified Alternative's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Quantified Alternative's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Quantified Alternative's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Quantified Alternative to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
Portfolio Holdings
Check your current holdings and cash postion to detemine if your portfolio needs rebalancing
Go
Financial Widgets
Easily integrated Macroaxis content with over 30 different plug-and-play financial widgets
Go
Price Exposure Probability
Analyze equity upside and downside potential for a given time horizon across multiple markets
Go
Price Transformation
Use Price Transformation models to analyze depth of different equity instruments across global markets
Go
Stock Screener
Find equities using custom stock filter or screen asymmetry in trading patterns, price, volume, or investment outlook.
Go
Instant Ratings
Determine any equity ratings based on digital recommendations. Macroaxis instant equity ratings are based on combination of fundamental analysis and risk-adjusted market performance
Go
ETF Directory
Find actively traded Exchange Traded Funds (ETF) from around the world
Go
Money Flow Index
Determine momentum by analyzing Money Flow Index and other technical indicators
Go
Content Syndication
Quickly integrate customizable finance content to your own investment portal
Go
Aroon Oscillator
Analyze current equity momentum using Aroon Oscillator and other momentum ratios
Go
Sync Your Broker
Sync your existing holdings, watchlists, positions or portfolios from thousands of online brokerage services, banks, investment account aggregators and robo-advisors.
Go
Volatility Analysis
Get historical volatility and risk analysis based on latest market data
Go
Please note, there is a significant difference between Quantified Alternative's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Quantified Alternative value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Quantified Alternative's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.