Qantas Airways OTC Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

QABSY
 Stock
  

USD 16.20  0.14  0.86%   

Qantas OTC Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Qantas Airways historical stock prices and determine the direction of Qantas Airways ADR's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Qantas Airways historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Please see Historical Fundamental Analysis of Qantas Airways to cross-verify your projections.
  
Most investors in Qantas Airways cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Qantas Airways' time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Qantas Airways' price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for Qantas Airways is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Qantas Airways ADR value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Qantas Airways Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 14th of August 2022

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Qantas Airways ADR on the next trading day is expected to be 16.20 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.34, mean absolute percentage error of 0.19, and the sum of the absolute errors of 20.61.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Qantas OTC Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Qantas Airways' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Qantas Airways OTC Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Qantas AirwaysQantas Airways Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Qantas Airways Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Qantas Airways' OTC Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Qantas Airways' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 13.70 and 18.70, respectively. We have considered Qantas Airways' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value 16.20
16.20
Expected Value
18.70
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Qantas Airways otc stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Qantas Airways otc stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria116.447
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.3379
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0204
SAESum of the absolute errors20.611
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Qantas Airways ADR. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Qantas Airways. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Qantas Airways

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Qantas Airways ADR. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Qantas Airways' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Qantas Airways in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
13.5316.2018.87
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
14.5417.2119.88
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Qantas Airways. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Qantas Airways' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Qantas Airways' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Qantas Airways ADR.

Other Forecasting Options for Qantas Airways

For every potential investor in Qantas, whether a beginner or expert, Qantas Airways' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Qantas OTC Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Qantas. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Qantas Airways' price trends.

Qantas Airways Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Qantas Airways otc stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Qantas Airways could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Qantas Airways by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
Delta Air LinesAlphabet Cl AAmn Healthcare ServicesTwist Bioscience CorpFreedom Holding CorpKEURIG DR PEPPERGX Nasdaq-100 CoveredFranklin Mutual EuropeanGARDNER DENVER INCUSA Value FactorBetapro Canadian GoldAramark Holdings CorpLong-Term Govt BondLIFE STORAGE INCMaiden Holdings North
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Qantas Airways ADR Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Qantas Airways' price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Qantas Airways' current price.

Qantas Airways Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Qantas Airways otc stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Qantas Airways shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Qantas Airways otc stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Qantas Airways ADR entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Qantas Airways Risk Indicators

The analysis of Qantas Airways' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Qantas Airways' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Qantas Airways stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Qantas Airways Investors Sentiment

The influence of Qantas Airways' investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in Qantas. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock markets does not have a solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.
Investor biases related to Qantas Airways' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with investment in Qantas. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Qantas can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Qantas Airways ADR. Please note that most equiteis that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Qantas Airways' market sentiment shows the aggregated news analyzed to detect positive and negative mentions from the text and comments. The data is normalized to provide daily scores for Qantas Airways' and other traded tickers. The bigger the bubble, the more accurate is the estimated score. Higher bars for a given day show more participation in the average Qantas Airways' news discussions. The higher the estimate score, the more favorable is the investor's outlook on Qantas Airways.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Qantas Airways in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Qantas Airways' short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Qantas Airways options trading.

Currently Active Assets on Macroaxis

Please see Historical Fundamental Analysis of Qantas Airways to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Qantas Airways ADR information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Qantas Airways' statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Bollinger Bands module to use Bollinger Bands indicator to analyze target price for a given investing horizon.

Complementary Tools for Qantas OTC Stock analysis

When running Qantas Airways ADR price analysis, check to measure Qantas Airways' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Qantas Airways is operating at the current time. Most of Qantas Airways' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Qantas Airways' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Qantas Airways' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Qantas Airways to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Qantas Airways' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Qantas Airways. If investors know Qantas will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Qantas Airways listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
0.036
Market Capitalization
6.2 B
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
0.32
Return On Assets
-0.0572
Return On Equity
-2.9
The market value of Qantas Airways ADR is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Qantas that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Qantas Airways' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Qantas Airways' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Qantas Airways' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Qantas Airways' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Qantas Airways' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Qantas Airways value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Qantas Airways' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.