Perrigo Stock Forecast - Simple Moving Average

PRGO
 Stock
  

USD 32.09  0.12  0.38%   

Perrigo Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Perrigo historical stock prices and determine the direction of Perrigo Company's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Perrigo historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Please check Historical Fundamental Analysis of Perrigo to cross-verify your projections.
  

Open Interest Agains t 2022-12-16 Perrigo Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Perrigo's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest Perrigo's options reflect these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short trading strategies Perrigo stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note, to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Perrigo's open interest, investors have to compare it to Perrigo's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Perrigo is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Perrigo. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Perrigo cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Perrigo's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Perrigo's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A two period moving average forecast for Perrigo is based on an daily price series in which the stock price on a given day is replaced by the mean of that price and the preceding price. This model is best suited to price patterns experiencing average volatility.

Perrigo Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 1st of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Perrigo Company on the next trading day is expected to be 32.09 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.70, mean absolute percentage error of 1.38, and the sum of the absolute errors of 42.24.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Perrigo Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Perrigo's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Perrigo Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest PerrigoPerrigo Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Perrigo Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Perrigo's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Perrigo's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 29.44 and 34.74, respectively. We have considered Perrigo's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value 32.09
32.09
Expected Value
34.74
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Perrigo stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Perrigo stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria116.5954
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.1364
MADMean absolute deviation0.7039
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0193
SAESum of the absolute errors42.235
The simple moving average model is conceptually a linear regression of the current value of Perrigo Company price series against current and previous (unobserved) value of Perrigo. In time series analysis, the simple moving-average model is a very common approach for modeling univariate price series models including forecasting stock prices into the future

Predictive Modules for Perrigo

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Perrigo Company. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Perrigo's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Perrigo in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
29.5432.1734.80
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
28.8845.4748.10
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
30.5636.3042.04
Details
14 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
70.0094.27125.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Perrigo. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Perrigo's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Perrigo's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Perrigo Company.

Other Forecasting Options for Perrigo

For every potential investor in Perrigo, whether a beginner or expert, Perrigo's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Perrigo Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Perrigo. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Perrigo's price trends.

Perrigo Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Perrigo stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Perrigo could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Perrigo by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
Abbvie IncAbbott LaboratoriesAmgen IncBiogen IncBiomarin PharmaceuticalsBristol-Myers SquibbGilead SciencesAmn Healthcare ServicesTwist Bioscience CorpFreedom Holding CorpGx Nasdaq-100 CoveredFranklin Mutual EuropeanBhp BillitonNatural Hlth TrdUSA Value Factor
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Perrigo Company Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Perrigo's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Perrigo's current price.

Perrigo Risk Indicators

The analysis of Perrigo's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Perrigo's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Perrigo stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Perrigo Investors Sentiment

The influence of Perrigo's investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in Perrigo. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock markets does not have a solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.
Investor biases related to Perrigo's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with investment in Perrigo. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Perrigo can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Perrigo Company. Please note that most equiteis that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Perrigo's market sentiment shows the aggregated news analyzed to detect positive and negative mentions from the text and comments. The data is normalized to provide daily scores for Perrigo's and other traded tickers. The bigger the bubble, the more accurate is the estimated score. Higher bars for a given day show more participation in the average Perrigo's news discussions. The higher the estimated score, the more favorable is the investor's outlook on Perrigo.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Perrigo in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Perrigo's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Perrigo options trading.

Currently Active Assets on Macroaxis

Please check Historical Fundamental Analysis of Perrigo to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Perrigo Company information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Perrigo's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Idea Optimizer module to use advanced portfolio builder with pre-computed micro ideas to build optimal portfolio .

Complementary Tools for Perrigo Stock analysis

When running Perrigo Company price analysis, check to measure Perrigo's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Perrigo is operating at the current time. Most of Perrigo's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Perrigo's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Perrigo's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Perrigo to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Perrigo's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Perrigo. If investors know Perrigo will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Perrigo listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
(0.64) 
Market Capitalization
4.3 B
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
0.055
Return On Assets
0.0107
Return On Equity
(0.0176) 
The market value of Perrigo Company is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Perrigo that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Perrigo's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Perrigo's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Perrigo's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Perrigo's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Perrigo's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Perrigo value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Perrigo's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.