Perrigo Company Stock Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing

PRGO
 Stock
  

USD 31.94  0.20  0.62%   

Perrigo Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Perrigo Company historical stock prices and determine the direction of Perrigo Company PLC's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Perrigo Company historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Perrigo Company naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm we recommend to always cross-verify it against solid analysis of Perrigo Company PLC systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Perrigo Company fundamentals over time.
Please check Historical Fundamental Analysis of Perrigo Company to cross-verify your projections.
  
The value of Asset Turnover is estimated to slide to 0.43. Weighted Average Shares is expected to rise to about 90.6 M this year. Weighted Average Shares Diluted is expected to rise to about 91.3 M this year.
Most investors in Perrigo Company cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Perrigo Company's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Perrigo Company's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Double exponential smoothing - also known as Holt exponential smoothing is a refinement of the popular simple exponential smoothing model with an additional trending component. Double exponential smoothing model for Perrigo Company works best with periods where there are trends or seasonality.

Perrigo Company Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 3rd of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Perrigo Company PLC on the next trading day is expected to be 31.78 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.68, mean absolute percentage error of 1.13, and the sum of the absolute errors of 40.26.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Perrigo Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Perrigo Company's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Perrigo Company Stock Forecast Pattern

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Perrigo Company Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Perrigo Company's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Perrigo Company's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 29.17 and 34.39, respectively. We have considered Perrigo Company's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value 31.94
31.78
Expected Value
34.39
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Perrigo Company stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Perrigo Company stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.15
MADMean absolute deviation0.6823
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0188
SAESum of the absolute errors40.2578
When Perrigo Company PLC prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any Perrigo Company PLC trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent Perrigo Company observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for Perrigo Company

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Perrigo Company. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Perrigo Company's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Perrigo Company in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
29.1531.7434.33
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
28.7445.3647.95
Details
14 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
70.0094.27125.00
Details
Earnings
Estimates (13)
LowProjected EPSHigh
6.856.997.18
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Perrigo Company. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Perrigo Company's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Perrigo Company's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Perrigo Company.

Other Forecasting Options for Perrigo Company

For every potential investor in Perrigo, whether a beginner or expert, Perrigo Company's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Perrigo Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Perrigo. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Perrigo Company's price trends.

Perrigo Company Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Perrigo Company stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Perrigo Company could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Perrigo Company by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
Linde PLCEtsy IncAnheuser Busch InbevAnheuser-Busch InBev SANVIntelCisco SystemsWalt DisneyATT IncAMN Healthcare ServicesTwist Bioscience CorpFreedom Holding CorpGlobal X NASDAQFRANKLIN MUTUAL EUROPEANBHP Group LimitedNatural Health Trend
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Perrigo Company Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Perrigo Company's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Perrigo Company's current price.

Perrigo Company Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Perrigo Company stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Perrigo Company shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Perrigo Company stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Perrigo Company PLC entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Perrigo Company Risk Indicators

The analysis of Perrigo Company's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Perrigo Company's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Perrigo Company stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Be your own money manager

Our tools can tell you how much better you can do entering a position in Perrigo Company without increasing your portfolio risk or giving up the expected return. As an individual investor, you need to find a reliable way to track all your investment portfolios. However, your requirements will often be based on how much of the process you decide to do yourself. In addition to allowing all investors analytical transparency into all their portfolios, our tools can evaluate risk-adjusted returns of your individual positions relative to your overall portfolio.

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Please check Historical Fundamental Analysis of Perrigo Company to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Perrigo Company information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Perrigo Company's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Price Exposure Probability module to analyze equity upside and downside potential for a given time horizon across multiple markets.

Complementary Tools for Perrigo Stock analysis

When running Perrigo Company price analysis, check to measure Perrigo Company's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Perrigo Company is operating at the current time. Most of Perrigo Company's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Perrigo Company's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Perrigo Company's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Perrigo Company to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Perrigo Company's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Perrigo Company. If investors know Perrigo will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Perrigo Company listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Perrigo Company is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Perrigo that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Perrigo Company's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Perrigo Company's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Perrigo Company's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Perrigo Company's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Perrigo Company's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Perrigo Company value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Perrigo Company's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.