Perrigo Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

PRGO
 Stock
  

USD 38.09  0.52  1.35%   

Perrigo Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Perrigo historical stock prices and determine the direction of Perrigo Company's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Perrigo historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Please check Historical Fundamental Analysis of Perrigo to cross-verify your projections.
  

Open Interest Agains t 2022-10-21 Perrigo Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Perrigo's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest Perrigo's options reflect these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short trading strategies Perrigo stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note, to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Perrigo's open interest, investors have to compare it to Perrigo's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Perrigo is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Perrigo. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Perrigo cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Perrigo's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Perrigo's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for Perrigo is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Perrigo Company value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Perrigo Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 27th of September

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Perrigo Company on the next trading day is expected to be 37.45 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.62, mean absolute percentage error of 0.61, and the sum of the absolute errors of 38.21.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Perrigo Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Perrigo's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Perrigo Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest PerrigoPerrigo Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Perrigo Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Perrigo's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Perrigo's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 35.82 and 39.08, respectively. We have considered Perrigo's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value 38.09
37.45
Expected Value
39.08
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Perrigo stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Perrigo stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria119.4507
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.6163
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0154
SAESum of the absolute errors38.208
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Perrigo Company. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Perrigo. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Perrigo

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Perrigo Company. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Perrigo's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Perrigo in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
36.5038.1339.76
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
34.2852.3653.99
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
37.1538.8740.59
Details
14 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
70.0094.27125.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Perrigo. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Perrigo's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Perrigo's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Perrigo Company.

Other Forecasting Options for Perrigo

For every potential investor in Perrigo, whether a beginner or expert, Perrigo's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Perrigo Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Perrigo. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Perrigo's price trends.

Perrigo Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Perrigo stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Perrigo could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Perrigo by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
Industrias BachocoAmn Healthcare ServicesTwist Bioscience CorpFreedom Holding CorpGx Nasdaq-100 CoveredFranklin Mutual EuropeanNatural Hlth TrdUSA Value FactorBetapro Canadian GoldAramark Holdings CorpLong-Term Govt BondMaiden Holdings NorthSeagate Technology HldgsVistra Energy CorpExxon Mobil Corp
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Perrigo Company Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Perrigo's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Perrigo's current price.

Perrigo Risk Indicators

The analysis of Perrigo's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Perrigo's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Perrigo stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Perrigo in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Perrigo's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Perrigo options trading.

Currently Active Assets on Macroaxis

Please check Historical Fundamental Analysis of Perrigo to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Perrigo Company information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Perrigo's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Fundamentals Comparison module to compare fundamentals across multiple equities to find investing opportunities.

Complementary Tools for Perrigo Stock analysis

When running Perrigo Company price analysis, check to measure Perrigo's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Perrigo is operating at the current time. Most of Perrigo's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Perrigo's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Perrigo's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Perrigo to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
Equity Analysis
Research over 250,000 global equities including funds, stocks and ETFs to find investment opportunities
Go
Efficient Frontier
Plot and analyze your portfolio and positions against risk-return landscape of the market.
Go
Portfolio Holdings
Check your current holdings and cash postion to detemine if your portfolio needs rebalancing
Go
Global Markets Map
Get a quick overview of global market snapshot using zoomable world map. Drill down to check world indexes
Go
Portfolio Backtesting
Avoid under-diversification and over-optimization by backtesting your portfolios
Go
Portfolio Manager
State of the art Portfolio Manager to monitor and improve performance of your invested capital
Go
Transaction History
View history of all your transactions and understand their impact on performance
Go
CEO Directory
Screen CEOs from public companies around the world
Go
Fundamental Analysis
View fundamental data based on most recent published financial statements
Go
Insider Screener
Find insiders across different sectors to evaluate their impact on performance
Go
ETF Directory
Find actively traded Exchange Traded Funds (ETF) from around the world
Go
Is Perrigo's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Perrigo. If investors know Perrigo will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Perrigo listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Perrigo Company is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Perrigo that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Perrigo's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Perrigo's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Perrigo's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Perrigo's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Perrigo's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Perrigo value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Perrigo's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.