Pool Corp Stock Forecast - 4 Period Moving Average

POOL
 Stock
  

USD 369.89  11.78  3.09%   

Pool Corp Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Pool Corp historical stock prices and determine the direction of Pool Corp's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Pool Corp historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Pool Corp naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm we recommend to always cross-verify it against solid analysis of Pool Corp systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Pool Corp fundamentals over time.
Please check Historical Fundamental Analysis of Pool Corp to cross-verify your projections.
  
Pool Corp Asset Turnover is relatively stable at the moment as compared to the past year. The company's current value of Asset Turnover is estimated at 2.55. Pool Corp Weighted Average Shares is relatively stable at the moment as compared to the past year. The company's current value of Weighted Average Shares is estimated at 46.13 Million. Weighted Average Shares Diluted is expected to hike to about 47.1 M this year, although the value of Issuance Purchase of Equity Shares will most likely fall to (196.7 M).

Open Interest Agains t 2022-08-19 Pool Corp Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Pool Corp's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest Pool Corp's options reflect these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short trading strategies Pool Corp stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note, to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Pool Corp's open interest, investors have to compare it to Pool Corp's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Pool Corp is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Pool Corp. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Pool Corp cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Pool Corp's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Pool Corp's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A four-period moving average forecast model for Pool Corp is based on an artificially constructed daily price series in which the value for a given day is replaced by the mean of that value and the values for four preceding and succeeding time periods. This model is best suited to forecast equities with high volatility.

Pool Corp 4 Period Moving Average Price Forecast For the 10th of August

Given 90 days horizon, the 4 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Pool Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 373.98 with a mean absolute deviation of 11.41, mean absolute percentage error of 225.32, and the sum of the absolute errors of 650.37.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Pool Corp Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Pool Corp's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Pool Corp Stock Forecast Pattern

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Pool Corp Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Pool Corp's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Pool Corp's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 371.00 and 376.96, respectively. We have considered Pool Corp's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value 369.89
371.00
Downside
373.98
Expected Value
376.96
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the 4 Period Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Pool Corp stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Pool Corp stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria116.1765
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 1.346
MADMean absolute deviation11.4099
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.031
SAESum of the absolute errors650.365
The four period moving average method has an advantage over other forecasting models in that it does smooth out peaks and troughs in a set of daily price observations of Pool Corp. However, it also has several disadvantages. In particular this model does not produce an actual prediction equation for Pool Corp and therefore, it cannot be a useful forecasting tool for medium or long range price predictions

Predictive Modules for Pool Corp

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Pool Corp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Pool Corp's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Pool Corp in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
366.91369.89372.87
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
332.90437.60440.58
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
326.11370.90415.68
Details
6 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
360.00518.00570.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Pool Corp. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Pool Corp's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Pool Corp's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Pool Corp.

Other Forecasting Options for Pool Corp

For every potential investor in Pool Corp, whether a beginner or expert, Pool Corp's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Pool Corp Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Pool Corp. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Pool Corp's price trends.

Pool Corp Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Pool Corp stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Pool Corp could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Pool Corp by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
Newell BrandsTupperware CorpWhirlpool CorpThe9 Ltd ADRNetflixNike IncPenn EntertainmentPepsicoProcter GambleAmn Healthcare ServicesTwist Bioscience CorpFreedom Holding CorpKEURIG DR PEPPERGX Nasdaq-100 CoveredFranklin Mutual European
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Pool Corp Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Pool Corp's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Pool Corp's current price.

Pool Corp Risk Indicators

The analysis of Pool Corp's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Pool Corp's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Pool Corp stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Be your own money manager

Our tools can tell you how much better you can do entering a position in Pool Corp without increasing your portfolio risk or giving up expected return. As an individual investor, you need to find a reliable way to track all your investment portfolios. However, your requirements will often be based on how much of the process you decide to do yourself. In addition to allowing all investors analytical transparency into all their portfolios, our tools can evaluate.risk-adjusted returns of your individual positions relative to your overall portfolio.

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Please check Historical Fundamental Analysis of Pool Corp to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Pool Corp information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Pool Corp's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Portfolio Holdings module to check your current holdings and cash postion to detemine if your portfolio needs rebalancing.

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Is Pool Corp's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Pool Corp. If investors know Pool Corp will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Pool Corp listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
0.2
Market Capitalization
15.1 B
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
0.15
Return On Assets
0.21
Return On Equity
0.74
The market value of Pool Corp is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Pool Corp that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Pool Corp's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Pool Corp's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Pool Corp's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Pool Corp's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Pool Corp's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Pool Corp value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Pool Corp's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.