Pool Corp Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

POOL
 Stock
  

USD 372.73  9.29  2.56%   

Pool Corp Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Pool Corp historical stock prices and determine the direction of Pool Corp's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Pool Corp historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Pool Corp naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm we recommend to always cross-verify it against solid analysis of Pool Corp systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Pool Corp fundamentals over time.
Please check Historical Fundamental Analysis of Pool Corp to cross-verify your projections.
  
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Pool Corp Asset Turnover is relatively stable at the moment as compared to the past year. The company's current value of Asset Turnover is estimated at 2.55. Pool Corp Weighted Average Shares is relatively stable at the moment as compared to the past year. The company's current value of Weighted Average Shares is estimated at 46.13 Million. Weighted Average Shares Diluted is expected to hike to about 47.1 M this year, although the value of Issuance Purchase of Equity Shares will most likely fall to (196.7 M).

Open Interest Agains t 2022-07-15 Pool Corp Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Pool Corp's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest Pool Corp's options reflect these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short trading strategies Pool Corp stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note, to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Pool Corp's open interest, investors have to compare it to Pool Corp's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Pool Corp is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Pool Corp. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Pool Corp cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Pool Corp's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Pool Corp's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for Pool Corp is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Pool Corp value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Pool Corp Current Investor Sentiment

Investor biases related to Pool Corp's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with investment in Pool Corp. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Pool Corp can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Pool Corp. Please note that most equiteis that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Pool Corp's market sentiment shows the aggregated news analyzed to detect positive and negative mentions from the text and comments. The data is normalized to provide daily scores for Pool Corp's and other traded tickers. The bigger the bubble, the more accurate is the estimated score. Higher bars for a given day show more participation in the average Pool Corp's news discussions. The higher the estimate score, the more favorable is the investor's outlook on Pool Corp.

Pool Corp Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 7th of July

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Pool Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 397.55 with a mean absolute deviation of 10.90, mean absolute percentage error of 165.28, and the sum of the absolute errors of 425.21. Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Pool Corp Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Pool Corp's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Pool Corp Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Pool CorpPool Corp Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Pool Corp Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Pool Corp's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Pool Corp's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 394.57 and 400.53, respectively. We have considered Pool Corp's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value 372.73
394.57
Downside
397.55
Expected Value
400.53
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Pool Corp stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Pool Corp stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria82.7849
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation10.9029
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0291
SAESum of the absolute errors425.2125
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Pool Corp. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Pool Corp. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Pool Corp

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Pool Corp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Pool Corp's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Pool Corp in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
371.25374.03376.81
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
335.48443.94446.72
Details
6 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
360.00518.00570.00
Details
Earnings
Estimates (3)
LowProjected EPSHigh
15.1515.1715.19
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Pool Corp. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Pool Corp's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Pool Corp's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Pool Corp.

Other Forecasting Options for Pool Corp

For every potential investor in Pool Corp, whether a beginner or expert, Pool Corp's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Pool Corp Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Pool Corp. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Pool Corp's price trends.

View Currently Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Pool Corp stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Pool Corp could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Pool Corp by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.

Pool Corp Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Pool Corp's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Pool Corp's current price.

Pool Corp Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Pool Corp stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Pool Corp shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Pool Corp stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Pool Corp entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Pool Corp Risk Indicators

The analysis of Pool Corp's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Pool Corp's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Pool Corp stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Pool Corp Investors Sentiment

The influence of Pool Corp's investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in Pool Corp. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock markets does not have a solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.
Investor biases related to Pool Corp's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with investment in Pool Corp. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Pool Corp can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Pool Corp. Please note that most equiteis that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Pool Corp's market sentiment shows the aggregated news analyzed to detect positive and negative mentions from the text and comments. The data is normalized to provide daily scores for Pool Corp's and other traded tickers. The bigger the bubble, the more accurate is the estimated score. Higher bars for a given day show more participation in the average Pool Corp's news discussions. The higher the estimate score, the more favorable is the investor's outlook on Pool Corp.

Pool Corp Implied Volatility

    
  25.58  
Pool Corp's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Pool Corp stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Pool Corp's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Pool Corp stock will not fluctuate a lot when Pool Corp's options are near their expiration.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Pool Corp in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Pool Corp's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Pool Corp options trading.

Current Sentiment - POOL

Pool Corp Investor Sentiment

Most of Macroaxis users are at this time bullish on Pool Corp. What is your perspective on investing in Pool Corp? Are you bullish or bearish?
Bullish
Bearish
98% Bullish
2% Bearish

Currently Active Assets on Macroaxis

Please check Historical Fundamental Analysis of Pool Corp to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Pool Corp information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Pool Corp's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Technical Analysis module to check basic technical indicators and analysis based on most latest market data.

Complementary Tools for Pool Corp Stock analysis

When running Pool Corp price analysis, check to measure Pool Corp's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Pool Corp is operating at the current time. Most of Pool Corp's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Pool Corp's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Pool Corp's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Pool Corp to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Pool Corp's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Pool Corp. If investors know Pool Corp will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Pool Corp listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
0.82
Market Capitalization
14.5 B
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
0.33
Return On Assets
0.19
Return On Equity
0.8
The market value of Pool Corp is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Pool Corp that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Pool Corp's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Pool Corp's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Pool Corp's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Pool Corp's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Pool Corp's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Pool Corp value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Pool Corp's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.