Plus500 OTC Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing

PLSQF
 Stock
  

USD 17.53  0.00  0.00%   

Plus500 OTC Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Plus500 historical stock prices and determine the direction of Plus500's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Plus500 historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Please check Historical Fundamental Analysis of Plus500 to cross-verify your projections.
  
Most investors in Plus500 cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Plus500's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Plus500's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Plus500 simple exponential smoothing forecast is a very popular model used to produce a smoothed price series. Whereas in simple Moving Average models the past observations for Plus500 are weighted equally, Exponential Smoothing assigns exponentially decreasing weights as Plus500 prices get older.

Plus500 Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 28th of November

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Plus500 on the next trading day is expected to be 17.53 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.034167, mean absolute percentage error of 0.07, and the sum of the absolute errors of 2.05.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Plus500 OTC Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Plus500's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Plus500 OTC Stock Forecast Pattern

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Plus500 Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Plus500's OTC Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Plus500's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 16.22 and 18.84, respectively. We have considered Plus500's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value 17.53
17.53
Expected Value
18.84
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Plus500 otc stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Plus500 otc stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria113.614
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.0342
MADMean absolute deviation0.0342
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0019
SAESum of the absolute errors2.05
This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting Plus500 forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent Plus500 observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for Plus500

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Plus500. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Plus500's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Plus500 in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
16.2217.5318.84
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
16.7318.0419.35
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
17.6717.6717.67
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Plus500. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Plus500's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Plus500's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Plus500.

Other Forecasting Options for Plus500

For every potential investor in Plus500, whether a beginner or expert, Plus500's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Plus500 OTC Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Plus500. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Plus500's price trends.

Plus500 Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Plus500 otc stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Plus500 could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Plus500 by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
Citic SecuritiesGoldman Sachs GroupCharles SchwabRaymond James FinancialInteractive BrokersMorgan StanleyAmn Healthcare ServicesTwist Bioscience CorpFreedom Holding CorpGx Nasdaq-100 CoveredFranklin Mutual EuropeanBhp BillitonNatural Hlth TrdUSA Value FactorBetapro Canadian Gold
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Plus500 Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Plus500's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Plus500's current price.

Plus500 Risk Indicators

The analysis of Plus500's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Plus500's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Plus500 stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Be your own money manager

Our tools can tell you how much better you can do entering a position in Plus500 without increasing your portfolio risk or giving up the expected return. As an individual investor, you need to find a reliable way to track all your investment portfolios. However, your requirements will often be based on how much of the process you decide to do yourself. In addition to allowing all investors analytical transparency into all their portfolios, our tools can evaluate risk-adjusted returns of your individual positions relative to your overall portfolio.

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Please check Historical Fundamental Analysis of Plus500 to cross-verify your projections. You can also try Watchlist Optimization module to optimize watchlists to build efficient portfolio or rebalance existing positions based on mean-variance optimization algorithm.

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Please note, there is a significant difference between Plus500's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Plus500 value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Plus500's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.