Photronics Stock Forecast - Polynomial Regression

PLAB
 Stock
  

USD 14.62  0.32  2.14%   

Photronics Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Photronics historical stock prices and determine the direction of Photronics's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Photronics historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Please check Historical Fundamental Analysis of Photronics to cross-verify your projections.
  

Open Interest Agains t 2022-10-21 Photronics Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Photronics' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest Photronics' options reflect these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short trading strategies Photronics stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note, to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Photronics' open interest, investors have to compare it to Photronics' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Photronics is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Photronics. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Photronics cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Photronics' time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Photronics' price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Photronics polinomial regression implements a single variable polynomial regression model using the daily prices as the independent variable. The coefficients of the regression for Photronics as well as the accuracy indicators are determined from the period prices.

Photronics Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 3rd of October

Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Photronics on the next trading day is expected to be 15.12 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.00, mean absolute percentage error of 1.91, and the sum of the absolute errors of 61.28.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Photronics Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Photronics' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Photronics Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest PhotronicsPhotronics Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Photronics Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Photronics' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Photronics' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 10.66 and 19.58, respectively. We have considered Photronics' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value 14.62
15.12
Expected Value
19.58
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Photronics stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Photronics stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria118.755
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation1.0045
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0518
SAESum of the absolute errors61.2757
A single variable polynomial regression model attempts to put a curve through the Photronics historical price points. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, this line can be indicated as: Y = a0 + a1*X + a2*X2 + a3*X3 + ... + am*Xm

Predictive Modules for Photronics

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Photronics. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Photronics' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Photronics in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
10.0014.4618.92
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
12.4516.9121.37
Details
3 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
16.0020.6724.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Photronics. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Photronics' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Photronics' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Photronics.

Other Forecasting Options for Photronics

For every potential investor in Photronics, whether a beginner or expert, Photronics' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Photronics Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Photronics. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Photronics' price trends.

Photronics Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Photronics stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Photronics could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Photronics by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
Amazon IncAmn Healthcare ServicesTwist Bioscience CorpFreedom Holding CorpGx Nasdaq-100 CoveredFranklin Mutual EuropeanNatural Hlth TrdUSA Value FactorBetapro Canadian GoldAramark Holdings CorpLong-Term Govt BondMaiden Holdings NorthSeagate Technology HldgsVistra Energy CorpExxon Mobil Corp
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Photronics Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Photronics' price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Photronics' current price.

Photronics Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Photronics stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Photronics shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Photronics stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Photronics entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Photronics Risk Indicators

The analysis of Photronics' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Photronics' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Photronics stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Photronics in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Photronics' short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Photronics options trading.

Currently Active Assets on Macroaxis

Please check Historical Fundamental Analysis of Photronics to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Photronics information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Photronics' statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Earnings Calls module to check upcoming earnings announcements updated hourly across public exchanges.

Complementary Tools for Photronics Stock analysis

When running Photronics price analysis, check to measure Photronics' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Photronics is operating at the current time. Most of Photronics' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Photronics' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Photronics' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Photronics to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Photronics' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Photronics. If investors know Photronics will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Photronics listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Photronics is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Photronics that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Photronics' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Photronics' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Photronics' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Photronics' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Photronics' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Photronics value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Photronics' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.