Progressive Corp Stock Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing

PGR
 Stock
  

USD 130.02  1.55  1.18%   

Progressive Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Progressive Corp historical stock prices and determine the direction of Progressive Corp's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Progressive Corp historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Progressive Corp naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm we recommend to always cross-verify it against solid analysis of Progressive Corp systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Progressive Corp fundamentals over time.
Please check Historical Fundamental Analysis of Progressive Corp to cross-verify your projections.
  
As of 11/29/2022, PPandE Turnover is likely to grow to 45.88. Also, Accrued Expenses Turnover is likely to grow to 34.27. Progressive Corp Weighted Average Shares is relatively stable at the moment as compared to the past year. Progressive Corp reported last year Weighted Average Shares of 584.5 Million. As of 11/29/2022, Weighted Average Shares Diluted is likely to grow to about 657.1 M, while Issuance Purchase of Equity Shares is likely to drop (93.9 M).

Open Interest Agains t 2022-12-16 Progressive Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Progressive Corp's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest Progressive Corp's options reflect these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short trading strategies Progressive Corp stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note, to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Progressive Corp's open interest, investors have to compare it to Progressive Corp's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Progressive Corp is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Progressive. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Progressive Corp cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Progressive Corp's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Progressive Corp's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Triple exponential smoothing for Progressive Corp - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When Progressive Corp prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in Progressive Corp price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of Progressive Corp.

Progressive Corp Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 30th of November

Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Progressive Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 130.09 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.69, mean absolute percentage error of 4.81, and the sum of the absolute errors of 99.55.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Progressive Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Progressive Corp's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Progressive Corp Stock Forecast Pattern

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Progressive Corp Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Progressive Corp's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Progressive Corp's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 128.33 and 131.85, respectively. We have considered Progressive Corp's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value 130.02
128.33
Downside
130.09
Expected Value
131.85
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Progressive Corp stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Progressive Corp stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.0595
MADMean absolute deviation1.6873
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0136
SAESum of the absolute errors99.55
As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past Progressive Corp observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older Progressive Corp observations.

Predictive Modules for Progressive Corp

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Progressive Corp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Progressive Corp's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Progressive Corp in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
128.21129.95131.69
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
101.72103.46143.02
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
124.65128.00131.35
Details
11 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
82.0099.00134.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Progressive Corp. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Progressive Corp's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Progressive Corp's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Progressive Corp.

Other Forecasting Options for Progressive Corp

For every potential investor in Progressive, whether a beginner or expert, Progressive Corp's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Progressive Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Progressive. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Progressive Corp's price trends.

Progressive Corp Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Progressive Corp stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Progressive Corp could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Progressive Corp by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
American InternationalAssurantArch Capital GrpAon PlcErie IndemnityAmn Healthcare ServicesTwist Bioscience CorpFreedom Holding CorpGx Nasdaq-100 CoveredFranklin Mutual EuropeanBhp BillitonNatural Hlth TrdUSA Value FactorBetapro Canadian GoldAramark Holdings Corp
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Progressive Corp Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Progressive Corp's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Progressive Corp's current price.

Progressive Corp Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Progressive Corp stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Progressive Corp shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Progressive Corp stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Progressive Corp entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Progressive Corp Risk Indicators

The analysis of Progressive Corp's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Progressive Corp's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Progressive Corp stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Be your own money manager

Our tools can tell you how much better you can do entering a position in Progressive Corp without increasing your portfolio risk or giving up the expected return. As an individual investor, you need to find a reliable way to track all your investment portfolios. However, your requirements will often be based on how much of the process you decide to do yourself. In addition to allowing all investors analytical transparency into all their portfolios, our tools can evaluate risk-adjusted returns of your individual positions relative to your overall portfolio.

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Please check Historical Fundamental Analysis of Progressive Corp to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Progressive Corp information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Progressive Corp's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Volatility Analysis module to get historical volatility and risk analysis based on latest market data.

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When running Progressive Corp price analysis, check to measure Progressive Corp's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Progressive Corp is operating at the current time. Most of Progressive Corp's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Progressive Corp's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Progressive Corp's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Progressive Corp to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Progressive Corp's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Progressive Corp. If investors know Progressive will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Progressive Corp listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
0.053
Market Capitalization
76.1 B
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
0.078
Return On Assets
0.0131
Return On Equity
0.0514
The market value of Progressive Corp is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Progressive that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Progressive Corp's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Progressive Corp's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Progressive Corp's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Progressive Corp's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Progressive Corp's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Progressive Corp value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Progressive Corp's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.