Procter Gamble Stock Forecast - Simple Moving Average

PG
 Stock
  

USD 129.20  0.90  0.69%   

Procter Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Procter Gamble historical stock prices and determine the direction of Procter Gamble's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Procter Gamble historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Please check Historical Fundamental Analysis of Procter Gamble to cross-verify your projections.
  

Open Interest Agains t 2022-10-07 Procter Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Procter Gamble's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest Procter Gamble's options reflect these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short trading strategies Procter Gamble stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note, to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Procter Gamble's open interest, investors have to compare it to Procter Gamble's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Procter Gamble is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Procter. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Procter Gamble cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Procter Gamble's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Procter Gamble's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A two period moving average forecast for Procter Gamble is based on an daily price series in which the stock price on a given day is replaced by the mean of that price and the preceding price. This model is best suited to price patterns experiencing average volatility.

Procter Gamble Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 7th of October

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Procter Gamble on the next trading day is expected to be 129.20 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.55, mean absolute percentage error of 4.28, and the sum of the absolute errors of 91.73.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Procter Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Procter Gamble's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Procter Gamble Stock Forecast Pattern

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Procter Gamble Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Procter Gamble's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Procter Gamble's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 127.80 and 130.60, respectively. We have considered Procter Gamble's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value 129.20
127.80
Downside
129.20
Expected Value
130.60
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Procter Gamble stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Procter Gamble stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria115.8877
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.4122
MADMean absolute deviation1.5547
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0112
SAESum of the absolute errors91.73
The simple moving average model is conceptually a linear regression of the current value of Procter Gamble price series against current and previous (unobserved) value of Procter Gamble. In time series analysis, the simple moving-average model is a very common approach for modeling univariate price series models including forecasting stock prices into the future

Predictive Modules for Procter Gamble

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Procter Gamble. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Procter Gamble's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Procter Gamble in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
127.56128.96130.36
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
116.28146.04147.44
Details
12 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
138.00158.50185.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Procter Gamble. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Procter Gamble's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Procter Gamble's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Procter Gamble.

Other Forecasting Options for Procter Gamble

For every potential investor in Procter, whether a beginner or expert, Procter Gamble's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Procter Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Procter. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Procter Gamble's price trends.

Procter Gamble Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Procter Gamble stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Procter Gamble could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Procter Gamble by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
Amazon IncAmn Healthcare ServicesTwist Bioscience CorpFreedom Holding CorpGx Nasdaq-100 CoveredFranklin Mutual EuropeanNatural Hlth TrdUSA Value FactorBetapro Canadian GoldAramark Holdings CorpLong-Term Govt BondMaiden Holdings NorthSeagate Technology HldgsVistra Energy CorpExxon Mobil Corp
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Procter Gamble Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Procter Gamble's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Procter Gamble's current price.

Procter Gamble Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Procter Gamble stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Procter Gamble shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Procter Gamble stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Procter Gamble entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Procter Gamble Risk Indicators

The analysis of Procter Gamble's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Procter Gamble's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Procter Gamble stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Be your own money manager

Our tools can tell you how much better you can do entering a position in Procter Gamble without increasing your portfolio risk or giving up the expected return. As an individual investor, you need to find a reliable way to track all your investment portfolios. However, your requirements will often be based on how much of the process you decide to do yourself. In addition to allowing all investors analytical transparency into all their portfolios, our tools can evaluate risk-adjusted returns of your individual positions relative to your overall portfolio.

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Please check Historical Fundamental Analysis of Procter Gamble to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Procter Gamble information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Procter Gamble's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try CEO Directory module to screen CEOs from public companies around the world.

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When running Procter Gamble price analysis, check to measure Procter Gamble's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Procter Gamble is operating at the current time. Most of Procter Gamble's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Procter Gamble's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Procter Gamble's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Procter Gamble to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Procter Gamble's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Procter Gamble. If investors know Procter will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Procter Gamble listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Procter Gamble is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Procter that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Procter Gamble's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Procter Gamble's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Procter Gamble's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Procter Gamble's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Procter Gamble's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Procter Gamble value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Procter Gamble's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.