Procter Gamble Stock Forecast - Polynomial Regression

PG
 Stock
  

USD 144.72  0.21  0.14%   

Procter Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Procter Gamble historical stock prices and determine the direction of Procter Gamble's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Procter Gamble historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Procter Gamble naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm we recommend to always cross-verify it against solid analysis of Procter Gamble systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Procter Gamble fundamentals over time.
Please check Historical Fundamental Analysis of Procter Gamble to cross-verify your projections.
  
Procter Gamble Accounts Payable Turnover is projected to drop slightly based on the last few years of reporting. The past year's Accounts Payable Turnover was at 5.61. The current year Accrued Expenses Turnover is expected to grow to 15.34, whereas Inventory Turnover is forecasted to decline to 6.16. . Procter Gamble Weighted Average Shares Diluted is projected to decrease significantly based on the last few years of reporting. The past year's Weighted Average Shares Diluted was at 2.54 Billion.

Open Interest Agains t 2022-08-12 Procter Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Procter Gamble's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest Procter Gamble's options reflect these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short trading strategies Procter Gamble stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note, to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Procter Gamble's open interest, investors have to compare it to Procter Gamble's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Procter Gamble is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Procter. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Procter Gamble cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Procter Gamble's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Procter Gamble's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Procter Gamble polinomial regression implements a single variable polynomial regression model using the daily prices as the independent variable. The coefficients of the regression for Procter Gamble as well as the accuracy indicators are determined from the period prices.

Procter Gamble Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 11th of August 2022

Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Procter Gamble on the next trading day is expected to be 143.52 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.68, mean absolute percentage error of 11.61, and the sum of the absolute errors of 166.28.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Procter Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Procter Gamble's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Procter Gamble Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Procter GambleProcter Gamble Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Procter Gamble Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Procter Gamble's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Procter Gamble's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 141.75 and 145.28, respectively. We have considered Procter Gamble's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value 144.72
141.75
Downside
143.52
Expected Value
145.28
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Procter Gamble stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Procter Gamble stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria122.4002
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation2.682
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.019
SAESum of the absolute errors166.282
A single variable polynomial regression model attempts to put a curve through the Procter Gamble historical price points. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, this line can be indicated as: Y = a0 + a1*X + a2*X2 + a3*X3 + ... + am*Xm

Predictive Modules for Procter Gamble

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Procter Gamble. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Procter Gamble's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Procter Gamble in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
143.11144.86146.61
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
130.44151.18152.93
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
140.09143.81147.53
Details
12 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
138.00158.50185.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Procter Gamble. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Procter Gamble's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Procter Gamble's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Procter Gamble.

Other Forecasting Options for Procter Gamble

For every potential investor in Procter, whether a beginner or expert, Procter Gamble's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Procter Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Procter. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Procter Gamble's price trends.

Procter Gamble Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Procter Gamble stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Procter Gamble could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Procter Gamble by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
Newell BrandsJM SmuckerSpectrum Brands HoldingsTJX CompaniesTupperware CorpWalgreens Boots AllianceWalmartFaraday Future IntelJohnson JohnsonAmn Healthcare ServicesTwist Bioscience CorpFreedom Holding CorpKEURIG DR PEPPERGX Nasdaq-100 CoveredFranklin Mutual European
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Procter Gamble Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Procter Gamble's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Procter Gamble's current price.

Procter Gamble Risk Indicators

The analysis of Procter Gamble's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Procter Gamble's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Procter Gamble stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Procter Gamble Investors Sentiment

The influence of Procter Gamble's investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in Procter. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock markets does not have a solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.
Investor biases related to Procter Gamble's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with investment in Procter. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Procter can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Procter Gamble. Please note that most equiteis that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Procter Gamble's market sentiment shows the aggregated news analyzed to detect positive and negative mentions from the text and comments. The data is normalized to provide daily scores for Procter Gamble's and other traded tickers. The bigger the bubble, the more accurate is the estimated score. Higher bars for a given day show more participation in the average Procter Gamble's news discussions. The higher the estimate score, the more favorable is the investor's outlook on Procter Gamble.

Procter Gamble Implied Volatility

    
  21.5  
Procter Gamble's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Procter Gamble stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Procter Gamble's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Procter Gamble stock will not fluctuate a lot when Procter Gamble's options are near their expiration.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Procter Gamble in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Procter Gamble's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Procter Gamble options trading.

Currently Active Assets on Macroaxis

Please check Historical Fundamental Analysis of Procter Gamble to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Procter Gamble information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Procter Gamble's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Analyst Recommendations module to analyst recommendations and target price estimates broken down by several categories.

Complementary Tools for Procter Stock analysis

When running Procter Gamble price analysis, check to measure Procter Gamble's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Procter Gamble is operating at the current time. Most of Procter Gamble's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Procter Gamble's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Procter Gamble's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Procter Gamble to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Procter Gamble's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Procter Gamble. If investors know Procter will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Procter Gamble listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Procter Gamble is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Procter that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Procter Gamble's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Procter Gamble's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Procter Gamble's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Procter Gamble's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Procter Gamble's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Procter Gamble value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Procter Gamble's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.