PFIZER DRN Stock Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing

PFIZ34
  

BRL 66.99  2.20  3.40%   

PFIZER Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast PFIZER DRN historical stock prices and determine the direction of PFIZER DRN's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of PFIZER DRN historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Please check Historical Fundamental Analysis of PFIZER DRN to cross-verify your projections.
  
Most investors in PFIZER DRN cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the PFIZER DRN's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets PFIZER DRN's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Triple exponential smoothing for PFIZER DRN - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When PFIZER DRN prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in PFIZER DRN price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of PFIZER DRN.

PFIZER DRN Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 29th of November

Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of PFIZER DRN on the next trading day is expected to be 67.29 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.10, mean absolute percentage error of 1.79, and the sum of the absolute errors of 65.05.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict PFIZER Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that PFIZER DRN's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

PFIZER DRN Stock Forecast Pattern

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PFIZER DRN Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting PFIZER DRN's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. PFIZER DRN's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 65.10 and 69.48, respectively. We have considered PFIZER DRN's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value 66.99
67.29
Expected Value
69.48
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of PFIZER DRN stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent PFIZER DRN stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.0943
MADMean absolute deviation1.1026
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0184
SAESum of the absolute errors65.0543
As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past PFIZER DRN observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older PFIZER DRN observations.

Predictive Modules for PFIZER DRN

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as PFIZER DRN. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of PFIZER DRN's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of PFIZER DRN in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
62.6264.7966.96
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
60.4162.5871.27
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as PFIZER DRN. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against PFIZER DRN's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, PFIZER DRN's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in PFIZER DRN.

Other Forecasting Options for PFIZER DRN

For every potential investor in PFIZER, whether a beginner or expert, PFIZER DRN's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. PFIZER Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in PFIZER. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying PFIZER DRN's price trends.

PFIZER DRN Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with PFIZER DRN stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of PFIZER DRN could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing PFIZER DRN by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
PFIZER DRNAMGEN DRNDIMED ON N2AURA 360 DR3MUNDIAL ONABC BRASIL PNPETRORIO ON NMPORTO SEGUROON NMTAIWANSMFAC DRNVALE ON NMAmn Healthcare ServicesTwist Bioscience CorpFreedom Holding CorpGx Nasdaq-100 CoveredFranklin Mutual European
 Risk & Return  Correlation

PFIZER DRN Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of PFIZER DRN's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of PFIZER DRN's current price.

PFIZER DRN Risk Indicators

The analysis of PFIZER DRN's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in PFIZER DRN's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting PFIZER DRN stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Be your own money manager

Our tools can tell you how much better you can do entering a position in PFIZER DRN without increasing your portfolio risk or giving up the expected return. As an individual investor, you need to find a reliable way to track all your investment portfolios. However, your requirements will often be based on how much of the process you decide to do yourself. In addition to allowing all investors analytical transparency into all their portfolios, our tools can evaluate risk-adjusted returns of your individual positions relative to your overall portfolio.

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Analyst Recommendations

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Please check Historical Fundamental Analysis of PFIZER DRN to cross-verify your projections. Note that the PFIZER DRN information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other PFIZER DRN's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Volatility Analysis module to get historical volatility and risk analysis based on latest market data.

Complementary Tools for PFIZER Stock analysis

When running PFIZER DRN price analysis, check to measure PFIZER DRN's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy PFIZER DRN is operating at the current time. Most of PFIZER DRN's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of PFIZER DRN's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move PFIZER DRN's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of PFIZER DRN to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Please note, there is a significant difference between PFIZER DRN's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine PFIZER DRN value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, PFIZER DRN's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.