PFIZER DRN Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

PFIZ34
  

BRL 64.97  1.40  2.11%   

PFIZER Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast PFIZER DRN historical stock prices and determine the direction of PFIZER DRN's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of PFIZER DRN historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Please check Historical Fundamental Analysis of PFIZER DRN to cross-verify your projections.
  
Most investors in PFIZER DRN cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the PFIZER DRN's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets PFIZER DRN's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for PFIZER DRN is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of PFIZER DRN value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

PFIZER DRN Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 30th of November

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of PFIZER DRN on the next trading day is expected to be 65.78 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.05, mean absolute percentage error of 1.62, and the sum of the absolute errors of 64.06.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict PFIZER Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that PFIZER DRN's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

PFIZER DRN Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest PFIZER DRNPFIZER DRN Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

PFIZER DRN Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting PFIZER DRN's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. PFIZER DRN's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 63.57 and 67.99, respectively. We have considered PFIZER DRN's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value 64.97
65.78
Expected Value
67.99
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of PFIZER DRN stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent PFIZER DRN stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria118.5924
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation1.0501
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0176
SAESum of the absolute errors64.0551
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of PFIZER DRN. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict PFIZER DRN. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for PFIZER DRN

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as PFIZER DRN. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of PFIZER DRN's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of PFIZER DRN in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
62.7664.9767.18
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
60.1662.3771.47
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
57.2161.9066.60
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as PFIZER DRN. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against PFIZER DRN's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, PFIZER DRN's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in PFIZER DRN.

Other Forecasting Options for PFIZER DRN

For every potential investor in PFIZER, whether a beginner or expert, PFIZER DRN's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. PFIZER Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in PFIZER. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying PFIZER DRN's price trends.

PFIZER DRN Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with PFIZER DRN stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of PFIZER DRN could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing PFIZER DRN by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
AMGEN DRNDIMED ON N2AURA 360 DR3MUNDIAL ONABC BRASIL PNPETRORIO ON NMPORTO SEGUROON NMTAIWANSMFAC DRNVALE ON NMAmn Healthcare ServicesTwist Bioscience CorpFreedom Holding CorpGx Nasdaq-100 CoveredFranklin Mutual EuropeanBhp Billiton
 Risk & Return  Correlation

PFIZER DRN Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of PFIZER DRN's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of PFIZER DRN's current price.

PFIZER DRN Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how PFIZER DRN stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading PFIZER DRN shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying PFIZER DRN stock market strength indicators, traders can identify PFIZER DRN entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

PFIZER DRN Risk Indicators

The analysis of PFIZER DRN's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in PFIZER DRN's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting PFIZER DRN stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards PFIZER DRN in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, PFIZER DRN's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from PFIZER DRN options trading.

Currently Active Assets on Macroaxis

Please check Historical Fundamental Analysis of PFIZER DRN to cross-verify your projections. Note that the PFIZER DRN information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other PFIZER DRN's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Stock Tickers module to use high-impact, comprehensive, and customizable stock tickers that can be easily integrated to any websites.

Complementary Tools for PFIZER Stock analysis

When running PFIZER DRN price analysis, check to measure PFIZER DRN's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy PFIZER DRN is operating at the current time. Most of PFIZER DRN's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of PFIZER DRN's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move PFIZER DRN's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of PFIZER DRN to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Please note, there is a significant difference between PFIZER DRN's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine PFIZER DRN value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, PFIZER DRN's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.