Penn National Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

PENN
 Stock
  

USD 35.03  0.67  1.88%   

Penn National Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Penn National historical stock prices and determine the direction of Penn National Gaming's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Penn National historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Penn National naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm we recommend to always cross-verify it against solid analysis of Penn National Gaming systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Penn National fundamentals over time.
Please check Historical Fundamental Analysis of Penn National to cross-verify your projections.
  
Penn National PPandE Turnover is quite stable at the moment as compared to the past year. The company's current value of PPandE Turnover is estimated at 1.50. Receivables Turnover is expected to rise to 50.48 this year, although the value of Accounts Payable Turnover will most likely fall to 113.82. . Penn National Weighted Average Shares is quite stable at the moment as compared to the past year. The company's current value of Weighted Average Shares is estimated at 171.23 Million. Weighted Average Shares Diluted is expected to rise to about 189.4 M this year, although the value of Issuance Purchase of Equity Shares will most likely fall to (21.2 M).

Open Interest Agains t 2022-12-09 Penn National Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Penn National's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest Penn National's options reflect these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short trading strategies Penn National stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note, to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Penn National's open interest, investors have to compare it to Penn National's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Penn National is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Penn National. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Penn National cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Penn National's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Penn National's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for Penn National is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Penn National Gaming value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Penn National Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 4th of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Penn National Gaming on the next trading day is expected to be 33.14 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.00, mean absolute percentage error of 1.67, and the sum of the absolute errors of 60.76.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Penn National Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Penn National's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Penn National Stock Forecast Pattern

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Penn National Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Penn National's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Penn National's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 29.83 and 36.44, respectively. We have considered Penn National's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value 35.03
33.14
Expected Value
36.44
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Penn National stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Penn National stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria118.6235
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.996
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0318
SAESum of the absolute errors60.7567
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Penn National Gaming. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Penn National. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Penn National

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Penn National Gaming. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Penn National's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Penn National in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
31.4034.7038.00
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
31.5346.1249.42
Details
13 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
38.0083.69150.00
Details
Earnings
Estimates (5)
LowProjected EPSHigh
2.502.642.76
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Penn National. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Penn National's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Penn National's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Penn National Gaming.

Other Forecasting Options for Penn National

For every potential investor in Penn National, whether a beginner or expert, Penn National's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Penn National Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Penn National. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Penn National's price trends.

Penn National Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Penn National stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Penn National could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Penn National by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
Bright Horizons FamilyBluegreen VacationsChoice Hotels InternAMN Healthcare ServicesTwist Bioscience CorpFreedom Holding CorpGlobal X NASDAQFRANKLIN MUTUAL EUROPEANBHP Group LimitedNatural Health TrendIShares MSCI USABetaPro Canadian GoldAramark HoldingsVanguard Long-TermSeagate Technology PLC
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Penn National Gaming Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Penn National's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Penn National's current price.

Penn National Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Penn National stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Penn National shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Penn National stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Penn National Gaming entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Penn National Risk Indicators

The analysis of Penn National's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Penn National's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Penn National stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Be your own money manager

Our tools can tell you how much better you can do entering a position in Penn National without increasing your portfolio risk or giving up the expected return. As an individual investor, you need to find a reliable way to track all your investment portfolios. However, your requirements will often be based on how much of the process you decide to do yourself. In addition to allowing all investors analytical transparency into all their portfolios, our tools can evaluate risk-adjusted returns of your individual positions relative to your overall portfolio.

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Please check Historical Fundamental Analysis of Penn National to cross-verify your projections. You can also try Bollinger Bands module to use Bollinger Bands indicator to analyze target price for a given investing horizon.

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When running Penn National Gaming price analysis, check to measure Penn National's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Penn National is operating at the current time. Most of Penn National's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Penn National's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Penn National's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Penn National to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Penn National's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Penn National. If investors know Penn National will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Penn National listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
0.38
Market Capitalization
5.5 B
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
0.075
Return On Assets
0.0428
Return On Equity
0.0735
The market value of Penn National Gaming is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Penn National that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Penn National's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Penn National's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Penn National's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Penn National's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Penn National's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Penn National value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Penn National's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.