Paylocity Holdings Stock Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing

PCTY
 Stock
  

USD 246.39  5.08  2.02%   

Paylocity Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Paylocity Holdings historical stock prices and determine the direction of Paylocity Holdings Corp's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Paylocity Holdings historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Please check Historical Fundamental Analysis of Paylocity Holdings to cross-verify your projections.
  

Open Interest Agains t 2022-10-21 Paylocity Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Paylocity Holdings' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest Paylocity Holdings' options reflect these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short trading strategies Paylocity Holdings stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note, to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Paylocity Holdings' open interest, investors have to compare it to Paylocity Holdings' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Paylocity Holdings is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Paylocity. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Paylocity Holdings cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Paylocity Holdings' time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Paylocity Holdings' price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Triple exponential smoothing for Paylocity Holdings - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When Paylocity Holdings prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in Paylocity Holdings price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of Paylocity Holdings Corp.

Paylocity Holdings Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 30th of September

Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Paylocity Holdings Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 247.42 with a mean absolute deviation of 5.83, mean absolute percentage error of 56.41, and the sum of the absolute errors of 343.70.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Paylocity Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Paylocity Holdings' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Paylocity Holdings Stock Forecast Pattern

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Paylocity Holdings Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Paylocity Holdings' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Paylocity Holdings' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 244.17 and 250.67, respectively. We have considered Paylocity Holdings' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value 246.39
244.17
Downside
247.42
Expected Value
250.67
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Paylocity Holdings stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Paylocity Holdings stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.7067
MADMean absolute deviation5.8254
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0257
SAESum of the absolute errors343.6972
As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past Paylocity Holdings observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older Paylocity Holdings Corp observations.

Predictive Modules for Paylocity Holdings

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Paylocity Holdings Corp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Paylocity Holdings' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Paylocity Holdings in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
221.00249.82253.05
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
221.00281.23284.46
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
229.69246.01262.33
Details
12 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
206.00285.54355.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Paylocity Holdings. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Paylocity Holdings' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Paylocity Holdings' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Paylocity Holdings Corp.

Other Forecasting Options for Paylocity Holdings

For every potential investor in Paylocity, whether a beginner or expert, Paylocity Holdings' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Paylocity Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Paylocity. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Paylocity Holdings' price trends.

Paylocity Holdings Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Paylocity Holdings stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Paylocity Holdings could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Paylocity Holdings by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
Blade Air MobilityGrupo Aeroportuario DelVienna InternationalFlughafen Zuerich UnsAdrTav HavalimanlariSingapore AirportGrupo Aeroportuario DelAmn Healthcare ServicesTwist Bioscience CorpFreedom Holding CorpGx Nasdaq-100 CoveredFranklin Mutual EuropeanNatural Hlth TrdUSA Value FactorBetapro Canadian Gold
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Paylocity Holdings Corp Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Paylocity Holdings' price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Paylocity Holdings' current price.

Paylocity Holdings Risk Indicators

The analysis of Paylocity Holdings' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Paylocity Holdings' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Paylocity Holdings stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Paylocity Holdings in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Paylocity Holdings' short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Paylocity Holdings options trading.

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Please check Historical Fundamental Analysis of Paylocity Holdings to cross-verify your projections. You can also try Portfolio File Import module to quickly import all of your third-party portfolios from your local drive in csv format.

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Is Paylocity Holdings' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Paylocity Holdings. If investors know Paylocity will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Paylocity Holdings listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Paylocity Holdings Corp is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Paylocity that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Paylocity Holdings' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Paylocity Holdings' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Paylocity Holdings' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Paylocity Holdings' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Paylocity Holdings' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Paylocity Holdings value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Paylocity Holdings' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.