Palo Alto Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

PANW
 Stock
  

USD 526.88  10.37  2.01%   

Palo Alto Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Palo Alto historical stock prices and determine the direction of Palo Alto Networks's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Palo Alto historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Palo Alto naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm we recommend to always cross-verify it against solid analysis of Palo Alto Networks systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Palo Alto fundamentals over time.
Please check Historical Fundamental Analysis of Palo Alto to cross-verify your projections.
  
Palo Alto PPandE Turnover is fairly stable at the moment as compared to the past year. Palo Alto reported PPandE Turnover of 14.69 in 2021. Receivables Turnover is likely to climb to 5.25 in 2022, whereas Accounts Payable Turnover is likely to drop 54.16 in 2022. . Weighted Average Shares is likely to drop to about 74.7 M in 2022. Weighted Average Shares Diluted is likely to drop to about 74.7 M in 2022.

Open Interest Agains t 2022-08-12 Palo Alto Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Palo Alto's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest Palo Alto's options reflect these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short trading strategies Palo Alto stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note, to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Palo Alto's open interest, investors have to compare it to Palo Alto's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Palo Alto is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Palo Alto. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Palo Alto cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Palo Alto's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Palo Alto's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for Palo Alto is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Palo Alto Networks value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Palo Alto Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 14th of August 2022

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Palo Alto Networks on the next trading day is expected to be 552.45 with a mean absolute deviation of 10.24, mean absolute percentage error of 175.31, and the sum of the absolute errors of 624.80.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Palo Alto Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Palo Alto's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Palo Alto Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Palo AltoPalo Alto Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Palo Alto Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Palo Alto's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Palo Alto's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 549.44 and 555.46, respectively. We have considered Palo Alto's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value 526.88
549.44
Downside
552.45
Expected Value
555.46
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Palo Alto stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Palo Alto stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria123.2771
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation10.2426
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0206
SAESum of the absolute errors624.7974
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Palo Alto Networks. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Palo Alto. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Palo Alto

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Palo Alto Networks. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Palo Alto's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Palo Alto in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
520.91523.92526.93
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
474.19549.67552.68
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
478.65505.17531.70
Details
29 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
480.00605.37700.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Palo Alto. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Palo Alto's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Palo Alto's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Palo Alto Networks.

Other Forecasting Options for Palo Alto

For every potential investor in Palo Alto, whether a beginner or expert, Palo Alto's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Palo Alto Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Palo Alto. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Palo Alto's price trends.

Palo Alto Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Palo Alto stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Palo Alto could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Palo Alto by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
Alphabet Cl CServicenowVmware IncXunlei LimitedAgilent TechnologiesVelodyne LidarIrobot CorpAlphabet Cl ANational CinemediaAmn Healthcare ServicesTwist Bioscience CorpFreedom Holding CorpKEURIG DR PEPPERGX Nasdaq-100 CoveredFranklin Mutual European
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Palo Alto Networks Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Palo Alto's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Palo Alto's current price.

Palo Alto Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Palo Alto stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Palo Alto shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Palo Alto stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Palo Alto Networks entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Palo Alto Risk Indicators

The analysis of Palo Alto's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Palo Alto's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Palo Alto stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Palo Alto Investors Sentiment

The influence of Palo Alto's investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in Palo Alto. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock markets does not have a solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.
Investor biases related to Palo Alto's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with investment in Palo Alto. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Palo Alto can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Palo Alto Networks. Please note that most equiteis that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Palo Alto's market sentiment shows the aggregated news analyzed to detect positive and negative mentions from the text and comments. The data is normalized to provide daily scores for Palo Alto's and other traded tickers. The bigger the bubble, the more accurate is the estimated score. Higher bars for a given day show more participation in the average Palo Alto's news discussions. The higher the estimate score, the more favorable is the investor's outlook on Palo Alto.

Palo Alto Implied Volatility

    
  45.87  
Palo Alto's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Palo Alto Networks stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Palo Alto's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Palo Alto stock will not fluctuate a lot when Palo Alto's options are near their expiration.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Palo Alto in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Palo Alto's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Palo Alto options trading.

Currently Active Assets on Macroaxis

Please check Historical Fundamental Analysis of Palo Alto to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Palo Alto Networks information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Palo Alto's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try CEO Directory module to screen CEOs from public companies around the world.

Complementary Tools for Palo Alto Stock analysis

When running Palo Alto Networks price analysis, check to measure Palo Alto's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Palo Alto is operating at the current time. Most of Palo Alto's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Palo Alto's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Palo Alto's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Palo Alto to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Palo Alto's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Palo Alto. If investors know Palo Alto will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Palo Alto listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Market Capitalization
52.3 B
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
0.29
Return On Assets
-0.014
Return On Equity
-0.58
The market value of Palo Alto Networks is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Palo Alto that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Palo Alto's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Palo Alto's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Palo Alto's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Palo Alto's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Palo Alto's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Palo Alto value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Palo Alto's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.