Occidental Petroleum Stock Forecast - Polynomial Regression

OXY
 Stock
  

USD 68.80  0.69  0.99%   

Occidental Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Occidental Petroleum historical stock prices and determine the direction of Occidental Petroleum's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Occidental Petroleum historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Occidental Petroleum naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm we recommend to always cross-verify it against solid analysis of Occidental Petroleum systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Occidental Petroleum fundamentals over time.
Please check Historical Fundamental Analysis of Occidental Petroleum to cross-verify your projections.
  
Occidental Petroleum PPandE Turnover is fairly stable at the moment as compared to the past year. Occidental Petroleum reported PPandE Turnover of 0.42 in 2021. Receivables Turnover is likely to rise to 8.98 in 2022, whereas Cash and Equivalents Turnover is likely to drop 10.14 in 2022. . Issuance Purchase of Equity Shares is likely to rise to about 12.1 B in 2022, whereas Weighted Average Shares is likely to drop slightly above 833.8 M in 2022.

Open Interest Agains t 2022-12-02 Occidental Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Occidental Petroleum's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest Occidental Petroleum's options reflect these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short trading strategies Occidental Petroleum stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note, to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Occidental Petroleum's open interest, investors have to compare it to Occidental Petroleum's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Occidental Petroleum is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Occidental. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Occidental Petroleum cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Occidental Petroleum's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Occidental Petroleum's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Occidental Petroleum polinomial regression implements a single variable polynomial regression model using the daily prices as the independent variable. The coefficients of the regression for Occidental Petroleum as well as the accuracy indicators are determined from the period prices.

Occidental Petroleum Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 2nd of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Occidental Petroleum on the next trading day is expected to be 66.01 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.55, mean absolute percentage error of 4.21, and the sum of the absolute errors of 94.79.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Occidental Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Occidental Petroleum's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Occidental Petroleum Stock Forecast Pattern

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Occidental Petroleum Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Occidental Petroleum's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Occidental Petroleum's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 63.24 and 68.78, respectively. We have considered Occidental Petroleum's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value 68.80
66.01
Expected Value
68.78
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Occidental Petroleum stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Occidental Petroleum stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria119.5491
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation1.5539
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0233
SAESum of the absolute errors94.7854
A single variable polynomial regression model attempts to put a curve through the Occidental Petroleum historical price points. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, this line can be indicated as: Y = a0 + a1*X + a2*X2 + a3*X3 + ... + am*Xm

Predictive Modules for Occidental Petroleum

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Occidental Petroleum. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Occidental Petroleum's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Occidental Petroleum in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
65.6968.9472.19
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
51.5154.7675.87
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
67.1470.0072.85
Details
16 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
20.0039.3555.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Occidental Petroleum. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Occidental Petroleum's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Occidental Petroleum's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Occidental Petroleum.

Other Forecasting Options for Occidental Petroleum

For every potential investor in Occidental, whether a beginner or expert, Occidental Petroleum's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Occidental Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Occidental. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Occidental Petroleum's price trends.

Occidental Petroleum Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Occidental Petroleum stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Occidental Petroleum could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Occidental Petroleum by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
Manulife Financial CorpArch Capital GroupProgressive CorpEverest Re GroupWillis Towers WatsonSun Life FinancialAMN Healthcare ServicesTwist Bioscience CorpFreedom Holding CorpGlobal X NASDAQFRANKLIN MUTUAL EUROPEANBHP Group LimitedNatural Health TrendIShares MSCI USAAramark Holdings
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Occidental Petroleum Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Occidental Petroleum's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Occidental Petroleum's current price.

Occidental Petroleum Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Occidental Petroleum stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Occidental Petroleum shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Occidental Petroleum stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Occidental Petroleum entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Occidental Petroleum Risk Indicators

The analysis of Occidental Petroleum's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Occidental Petroleum's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Occidental Petroleum stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Be your own money manager

Our tools can tell you how much better you can do entering a position in Occidental Petroleum without increasing your portfolio risk or giving up the expected return. As an individual investor, you need to find a reliable way to track all your investment portfolios. However, your requirements will often be based on how much of the process you decide to do yourself. In addition to allowing all investors analytical transparency into all their portfolios, our tools can evaluate risk-adjusted returns of your individual positions relative to your overall portfolio.

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Please check Historical Fundamental Analysis of Occidental Petroleum to cross-verify your projections. You can also try Idea Optimizer module to use advanced portfolio builder with pre-computed micro ideas to build optimal portfolio .

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Is Occidental Petroleum's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Occidental Petroleum. If investors know Occidental will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Occidental Petroleum listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
2.89
Market Capitalization
63.2 B
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
0.38
Return On Assets
0.11
Return On Equity
0.54
The market value of Occidental Petroleum is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Occidental that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Occidental Petroleum's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Occidental Petroleum's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Occidental Petroleum's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Occidental Petroleum's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Occidental Petroleum's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Occidental Petroleum value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Occidental Petroleum's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.